我刚打赏了这个帖子 ¥1,也推荐给你。
巴菲特表示,股票会不时地以愚蠢的价格交易,可能是高也可能是低,“有效市场”只存在于教科书中。
这是符合“价格围绕价值上下波动”的基本经济学规律的、
要素齐备的市场在宏观上总是有效的,某个时点上的市场切片总是无效的。
这才是“长期主义”有效的原因。
• If you don’t see the world the way it is, it’s like judging something through a distorted lens.
• 如果你不接受世界的现实情况,那就像是通过扭曲的镜头来判断事物。
The disposition of money unmasks humans. Charlie and I watch with pleasure the vast flow of Berkshire-generated funds to public needs and, alongside, the infrequency with which our shareholders opt for look-at-me assets and dynasty-building.
金钱的处置揭示了人的本质。查理和我高兴地看着伯克希尔产生的大量资金流向公共需求,同时,我们的股东很少选择“瞧我多有钱”资产和家族王朝建设
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Please note particularly that we own publicly-traded stocks based on our expectations about their long-term business performance, not because we view them as vehicles for adroit purchases and sales. That point is crucial: Charlie and I are not stock-pickers; we are business-pickers.
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Capitalism has two sides: The system creates an ever-growing pile of losers while concurrently delivering a gusher of improved goods and services. Schumpeter called this phenomenon “creative destruction.”
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One advantage of our publicly-traded segment is that – episodically – it becomes easy to buy pieces of wonderful businesses at wonderful prices. It’s crucial to understand that stocks often trade at truly foolish prices, both high and low. “Efficient” markets exist only in textbooks.
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The lesson for investors: The weeds wither away in significance as the flowers bloom. Over time, it takes just a few winners to work wonders. And, yes, it helps to start early and live into your 90s as well.
给投资者的教训是: 花开花落,杂草只会枯萎。随着时间的推移,只需要几个赢家就能创造奇迹。而且,是的,早点开始投资、活到90多岁也有帮助。
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At Berkshire we hope and expect to pay much more in taxes during the next decade. We owe the country no less: America’s dynamism has made a huge contribution to whatever success Berkshire has achieved – a contribution Berkshire will always need. We count on the American Tailwind and, though it has been becalmed from time to time, its propelling force has always returned.
在伯克希尔,我们希望并期望在未来十年缴纳更多的税款。我们同样亏欠这个国家:美国的活力对伯克希尔取得的任何成功都做出了巨大贡献——伯克希尔永远都需要这种贡献。我们依靠的是美国顺风,虽然它有时会停滞不前,但它的推动力总是回来的
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I have been investing for 80 years – more than one-third of our country’s lifetime. Despite our citizens’ penchant – almost enthusiasm – for self-criticism and self-doubt, I have yet to see a time when it made sense to make a long-term bet against America. And I doubt very much that any reader of this letter will have a different experience in the future.
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Don’t bail away in a sinking boat if you can swim to one that is seaworthy.
•如果你能游到一艘适航的船,就不要继续在下沉的船上勺水
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A great company keeps working after you are not; a mediocre company won’t do that.
• 一家伟大的公司会在你退休后继续运转;一个平庸的公司不会这么做
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There is no such thing as a 100% sure thing when investing. Thus, the use of leverage is dangerous. A string of wonderful numbers times zero will always equal zero. Don’t count on getting rich twice.
• 投资时没有百分之百的把握。因此,使用杠杆是危险的。一串奇妙的数字乘以0总是等于0。不要指望能富两次。
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You have to keep learning if you want to become a great investor. When the world changes, you must change.
• 如果你想成为一名伟大的投资者,你必须不断学习。当世界发生变化,你必须改变。
• Warren and I hated railroad stocks for decades, but the world changed and finally the country had four huge railroads of vital importance to the American economy. We were slow to recognize the change, but better late than never.
• 沃伦和我讨厌铁路股有几十年了,但世界变了,最终美国有了四条对美国经济至关重要的大型铁路。我们迟迟没有意识到这种变化,但迟到总比不到好。
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Finally, I will add two short sentences by Charlie that have been his decision-clinchers for decades: “Warren, think more about it. You’re smart and I’m right.”
• 最后,我要加上查理的两句话,这两句话几十年来一直是他做决定的关键: “沃伦,再考虑一下。你很聪明,而我是对的。”
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Do the math: See’s rang up about 10 sales per minute during its prime operating time (racking up $400,309 of volume during the two days), with all the goods purchased at a single location selling products that haven’t been materially altered in 101 years. What worked for See’s in the days of Henry Ford’s model T works now.
算算看: 喜诗在其黄金营业时间内,每分钟约有10笔销售(两天内销售额达400,309美元),所有在同一地点购买的商品都是101年没有实质性改变的产品。在亨利·福特T型车时代对喜诗管用的方法现在也管用
老先生这次有点“自豪”,这是准备为人生事业做总结了