博枫股东信摘抄 2020年3月

发布于: 修改于: 雪球转发:33回复:24喜欢:47

$Brookfield资管(BAM)$ 从历年#博枫股东信#中,随手摘选一些时效性不强的文字。

【Dear Shareholders, 亲爱的股东】

Given all the market volatility of the last few weeks, we thought it would be helpful to provide an update on where we stand as a company. No one is immune to the issues we are all dealing with, but as you know from our letters over the years, we have been expecting a recession and market washout for some time. Nobody could have predicted that the coronavirus would be the cause, but the markets sure turned over the last month.

鉴于过去几周的市场波动,我们认为提供我们作为一家公司的最新情况会有帮助。没有人能对我们正在处理的问题免疫,但正如你从我们多年来的信件中了解到的,我们预期经济衰退和市场崩溃已经有一段时间了。没有人能预测到冠状病毒会是原因,但市场在上个月确实发生了变化。

As to our positioning and readiness for this, we believe we are in very good shape. We think it is important for you to know a few points:

至于我们在这方面的定位和准备情况,我们认为我们的情况非常好。我们认为你需要了解以下几点:

• We have approximately $12 billion of bank lines in BAM and our four listed affiliates, all of which are very long-term, and importantly are all virtually 100% undrawn with global financial partners who we trust.

•我们在BAM和四家上市附属公司拥有约120亿美元的银行信贷额度,所有这些额度都有非常长的期限,重要的是,这些银行都是我们信任的全球金融合作伙伴,而且这些额度几乎100%还没有使用。

• We have approximately $5 billion of financial and non-core assets that can be liquidated with relative ease (even in today’s markets) should we so choose, to fund strategic investments or take care of issues. Many of these are hedged with index hedges so even if markets are down, this should offset marks that may come about due to the environment.

•我们有大约50亿美元的金融和非核心资产可以相对容易地变现(即使在今天的市场上),如果我们选择这样做,可以为战略投资提供资金或处理问题。其中很多金融资产都是用指数期货来对冲的,所以即使市场下跌,这也应该能抵消市场环境可能造成的损失。

• We have only $7 billion of corporate debt (against an equity market cap of $40 to $60 billion – depending on the day) and none of that debt is coming due for many years. Similarly, in our private funds and listed affiliates, we have very little debt coming due over the next few years. To the extent that we have debt due, they are financings and mortgages secured by individual assets (which confines any impact to the asset). However, even in 2008/09 we were able to roll those over.

•我们只有70亿美元的公司债务(而股票市值为400亿至600亿美元——取决于具体日期),而且这些债务在许多年内都不会到期。同样,在我们的私募基金和上市附属公司中,未来几年即将到期的债务非常少。在我们有到期债务的情况下,它们是由单项资产担保的融资和抵押贷款(这将任何影响限制在特定资产中)。然而,即使是在2008/09年,我们也能够将这些贷款延期。

• We have no ‘hung purchases’. In fact, it’s the opposite – one way or another, every contested deal we tried to do over the past five months, we lost. We remained disciplined, which meant that we did not buy a number of businesses as their price rose. In hindsight, this was good.

•我们没有“悬在半空的收购项目”。事实上,情况恰恰相反——不管怎样,过去5个月里我们试图达成的每一笔有竞拍者的收购交易,我们都失败了。我们保持自律,这意味着我们没有在一些企业的价格上涨时收购它们。事后看来,这是件好事。

• We just finished raising our latest funds and co-investments, totaling over $50 billion. These are only 40% invested, so we have a lot of capital to put to work in this environment. We also have the support of many leading sovereign and institutional investors in the world to augment these resources.

•我们刚刚完成了最新基金和共同投资的募资,总额超过500亿美元。这些基金才投出去40%,所以在这种环境下我们有很多资金可以投入。我们还得到了世界上许多主要主权和机构投资者的支持,以增加这些资源。

• We partnered with Oaktree last year in anticipation of the debt markets unwinding. Now it’s taking place. The team at Oaktree is accelerating the pace of deployment of their current distressed debt fund and preparing to launch their next fund, which we think could significantly exceed the size of their last. If this turns out to be the case, the addition of this business to ours will be very additive for us and our clients.

•去年,预期债务市场会出现松动,我们与橡树资本(Oaktree)达成合作。现在债务市场的松动正在发生。橡树资本的团队正在加快投放现有不良债务基金的步伐,并准备推出下一只基金,我们认为这只基金的规模可能会大大超过上一只基金。如果结果是这样的话,这项业务对我们和我们的客户来说都是非常有利的。

• Most of our businesses are very resilient, and we therefore don’t foresee major issues. Of course, with people staying home, business is slowing everywhere. In our operations, for example, our malls will be operating at a significantly reduced rate for a while (but this is a second derivative exposure as we collect rent, not run the stores, and our financing structures are in good shape), and fewer ships will travel to our ports. The bottom line is that while there are certain to be issues across our portfolio, our businesses are diversified, our financing structures are time-tested, and our resources significant to deal with this.

•我们的大部分业务都很有韧性,因此我们预计不会出现大问题。当然,由于人们呆在家里,各地的生意都在放缓。例如,在我们的业务中,我们的购物中心将在一段时间内以显著下降的速度运营(但这是二次衍生风险,因为我们收取租金,而不是经营商店,而且我们的融资结构状况良好),前往我们港口的船只将减少。我们的总结是,尽管我们的投资组合中肯定会有问题,但我们的业务是多元化的,我们的融资结构是经过时间考验的,我们的资源充足,可以应对这些问题。

• Much of what we own around the world is critical infrastructure – across our property, infrastructure, renewable power and industrial businesses. We are working with governments and our employees to ensure that these facilities remain operational through this period. While many are at home now, people and companies still need corporate premises, infrastructure, power, broadband, utilities and many other critical services that form the backbone of the global economy, and that Brookfield’s businesses provide. Our teams are doing their best to ensure uninterrupted delivery of these services for our customers, while operating under difficult circumstances.

•我们在全球拥有的大部分是关键基础设施——包括我们的房地产、基础设施、可再生能源和工业业务。我们正在与各国政府和我们的员工合作,确保这些设施在这段时间内保持运转。虽然现在很多人都待在家里,但个人和公司仍然需要企业办公场所、基础设施、电力、宽带、公用事业和许多其他关键服务,这些服务构成了全球经济的支柱,而博枫的企业也提供这些服务。我们的团队正在尽最大努力确保不间断地为我们的客户提供这些服务,尽管在困难的情况下运营。

As to what we do now, here is how we are approaching this market volatility and uncertainty:

至于我们现在所做的,以下是我们应对市场波动和不确定性的方法:

• Most importantly, we are staying calm and ensuring our people are safe. For us, compared to the direct hit we took on 9/11, this uncertainty and volatility feels manageable. In 2008, with the banking system failing, real asset owners didn’t know if many lenders were going to exist in the future. Today, the banking system is in far better shape. It never feels very good to have this degree of chaos, but this will pass.

•最重要的是,我们保持冷静,确保我们的员工安全。对我们来说,与9/11事件的直接打击相比,这种不确定性和波动性感觉是可控的。2008年,随着银行体系的崩溃,真正的资产所有者不知道许多放贷机构未来是否依然会存在。如今,银行体系的状况要好得多。这种程度的混乱总是让人感觉不好,但总会过去的。

• We are being vigilant and will continue to be disciplined. We will maintain capital for our worst-case scenarios. This is always very important, but even more so now.

•我们正在保持警惕,并将继续遵守纪律。我们将为最坏的情况保留资金。这一点一直都很重要,现在更是如此。

• We have switched our focus for investments to the listed stock markets, and through our Oaktree franchise, the traded debt market. There are some stocks and debt starting to trade at a large discount to intrinsic value and we are focused on these. We are also starting to receive calls from companies in need of capital, and we look forward to being helpful to companies in need, where we can.

•我们已将投资重点转向上市股票市场,并通过我们的橡树集团(Oaktree) 业务,转向交易债券市场。有些股票和债券的交易价格已开始大幅低于其内在价值,我们正在关注这些股票和债券。我们也开始接到需要资金的公司打来的电话,我们期待着尽我们所能帮助有需要的公司。

• Our shares have sold off along with everything else. We have been acquiring, and will continue to acquire our own shares for value when it makes sense – and in time, we are certain they will recover.

•我们的股票和其他股票一起被抛售了。我们一直在回购,并将继续在有价值的时候回购我们自己的股票——我们相信,它们迟早会恢复。

• Interest rates are now 100 basis points lower than they were a month ago. The value of many real assets is therefore higher, and our clients’ need for our offerings even greater. In time, this will all flow through to our assets and the valuations of our business.

•现在的利率比一个月前低100个基点。因此,许多实物资产的价值更高,我们的客户对我们产品的需求更大。随着时间的推移,这一切都将影响我们的资产和我们业务的估值。

Finally, a reminder regarding investing in times like these: the underlying value of a business that trades in the public market does not change on an hourly basis. Despite the fluctuations, you own a part of an actual business, not a piece of paper or electronic symbol that adjusts on a minute-by-minute basis.

最后,关于在这种时候投资的一个提醒:在公开市场交易的企业的潜在价值不会每小时发生变化。尽管有波动,你拥有的是一个实际业务的一部分,而不是一张纸或电子符号,每分钟都在调整。

Acknowledging that the value of some businesses has changed, at least in the short term (airlines being the most extreme example at the moment), the long-term value of many companies – i.e., the discounted stream of cash flows based on an estimate of growth and durability into the future – has not changed substantially over the past few months. The proviso is that a company must be able to pay its liabilities when due (stay solvent), which of course will be an issue for numerous companies in the absence of government assistance. Our focus has always been on structuring our affairs to ensure we can survive all environments, and we are confident we are in this position today.

承认一些业务的价值已经发生了变化,至少在短期内(航空公司是目前最极端的例子),许多公司的长期价值——即基于对未来增长和持久性的估计的现金流贴现——在过去几个月没有发生实质性的变化。

附带条件是,公司必须有能力在到期时偿还债务(保持偿付能力),在没有政府援助的情况下,这对许多公司来说当然是一个问题。我们一直专注于组织我们的事务,以确保我们能在各种环境中生存下来,我们有信心我们今天做到了这一点。

Most of our cash flow streams are of very long duration with long-term property leases, long-term power sale contracts, and long-term regulated utility rates that provide durable business revenues with strong counterparties. As a result, the change in value of our businesses in the stock market over a few months has very little to do with the underlying businesses that you, as a shareholder, own. Please remember that you each own a portion of the investment management fees our business generates, as well as a portion of each of the durable businesses and assets we own.

我们的大部分现金流都是长期的,包括长期的物业租赁、长期的电力销售合同和长期的公用事业费率,由信用级别强大的签约客户提供持久的业务收入。因此,我们公司在股票市场上几个月的股价变化与你作为股东所拥有的基础业务几乎没有关系。

请记住,你们每个人都拥有我们资管业务产生的投资管理费的一部分,以及我们拥有的每个持久业务和资产的一部分。

It would be less distracting if we all owned this business together privately. That way you could read our materials, look at how each of our businesses is doing, observe the cash flows projected for many years, and not worry about how the stock market, with its short-term focus, values this information. We publish our views of how we value this business, and we encourage you to focus on these values over time (adjusted upward or downward as you see fit) and not on the stock price when volatility is at an extreme. In fact, the main reason to consider the stock price at moments like these is that it allows you to acquire a portion of our business at a large discount from its real value.

如果我们一起私下经营这个公司就不会那么让人分心了。这样一来,你就可以阅读我们的材料,了解我们每家公司的经营情况,观察未来多年的现金流预测,而不必担心关注短期的股票市场对这些信息的估值。

我们公布了我们对该业务估值的看法,我们鼓励您随着时间的推移关注这些价值(根据您的需要向上或向下调整),而不是在波动剧烈时关注股价。事实上,在这样的时刻考虑股价的主要原因是,它可以让你以较大的折扣收购我们的一部分业务。

It is very easy to invest in the markets when times are good, but it is in times of market decline that following the tenets of value investing matters most. We encourage you to follow them. We know this is a very stressful time for everyone. Please know that we are watching out for your capital.

在市场行情好的时候投资市场是很容易的,但在市场下跌的时候,遵循价值投资的原则才是最重要的。我们鼓励你遵循它们。我们知道现在大家压力都很大。请知道我们在密切关注你们的资金。

Be safe and please wash your hands,

注意安全,请勤洗手,

全部讨论

2022-09-20 21:07

始终在意估值,多元化组合,保持偿付能力,为最坏情况预留现金,我们也一直这么要求自己。

2022-09-20 20:38

在2020年3月欧美疫情刚开始时,$Brookfield资管(BAM)$特别发给股东的信。
下一次股价大幅下跌时也可以参考。

2022-09-20 22:29

投资大师们怎么说的都一个样子。---在公开市场交易的企业的潜在价值不会每小时发生变化。尽管有波动,你拥有的是一个实际业务的一部分,而不是一张纸或电子符号,每分钟都在调整。我们正在保持警惕,并将继续遵守纪律。我们将为最坏的情况保留资金。这一点一直都很重要,现在更是如此。

2022-09-20 21:17

第一层意思:重点关注生意的内在价值,而非股价波动
the underlying value of a business that trades in the public market does not change on an hourly basis. Despite the fluctuations, you own a part of an actual business, not a piece of paper or electronic symbol that adjusts on a minute-by-minute basis.

第二层意思:内在价值在此期间有无变化
We publish our views of how we value this business, and we encourage you to focus on these values over time (adjusted upward or downward as you see fit) and not on the stock price when volatility is at an extreme. 
第三层意思:观察股价变化的主要动机,在于从中寻找低估的机会
In fact, the main reason to consider the stock price at moments like these is that it allows you to acquire a portion of our business at a large discount from its real value.

2022-09-23 22:47

"我们的总结是,尽管我们的投资组合中肯定会有问题,但我们的业务是多元化的,我们的融资结构是经过时间考验的,我们的资源充足,可以应对这些问题."

为最坏情况做准备,比2008好多了的环境。

2022-09-21 17:09

“最后,关于在这种时候投资的一个提醒:在公开市场交易的企业的潜在价值不会每小时发生变化。尽管有波动,你拥有的是一个实际业务的一部分,而不是一张纸或电子符号,每分钟都在调整。”

2022-09-20 22:11

我们正在保持警惕,并将继续遵守纪律。我们将为最坏的情况保留资金。