泡泡玛特会不会像乐高一样开始搞自己的供应链$泡泡玛特(09992)$
candid_punter
别亏钱了
- 关注:26
- 粉丝:5
- 自选:0
- 组合:0
他的全部讨论
均值回归 Mean Reversion 应该是投资研究里面被使用最广泛的逻辑之一了，其实我一直觉得均值回归的逻辑是很危险的，它没有办法告诉你何时回归，为什么回归，很多时候如果只用均值回归解释问题，在理解层面上深度是不够的，甚至会误导你的思考。
2020年美股估值的上涨很多人站出来喊泡沫一定会...
![[笑]](http://assets.imedao.com/ugc/images/face/emoji_01_smile.png?v=1 "[笑]"){kind=small}
Interestingly, Treasury markets historically have overestimated the persistence of early-cycle inflation, as 10-year yields and breakeven inflation expectations peaked in the early years of the last two recoveries.
The flow-through effect of input cost increases and dispo...
老鲍：保持乐观，不要轻易做空
“I mean, the last thing – the last maybe lesson would be even if terrible times try to take counsel from your hopes as well as your fears. Because, you know, when – in March and April of last year, I mean, you know – but you saw the way th...
$京东物流(JDWL)$ 可能有几个比较关键的问题需要想的更明白一些。
1. 轻资产而不是重资产。倉儲網絡管理面積全國第一，倉儲管理包括自運營以及雲上第三方運營（租賃模式），第三方运营模式风险如何？如果第三方运营的仓储基础设施中止服务，对于公司整个仓储基础设施运行是否能够产生明显影响...
工业和汽车模拟IC和功率器件领域未来大概率市场集中度会越来越高。
工业应用对于可靠性、精确程度更高的要求，电动车对于功率及模拟IC单车需求量比传统燃油车平均需要提高1倍、5G基站内芯片数量大幅增长都是这些行业未来最显著的增长驱动因素。
高电压、大电流、高功率模拟半导体其实一直...
The incumbents are not getting smaller—their weightedaverage market share is stable, at about 35% across each of 11 American tech subsectors. But the share of second and third firms has risen from 18% to 26% since 2015.
First, big tech firms are diversifying as their...
Why the Savings Boom Won’t Boost Spending As Much as You’d Think from Barrons
A close look at where the money has actually gone implies that the excess savings will probably finance a modest post-pandemic consumption boomlet rather than an inflationary binge.
First, savings in bank account are much more likely to get spent than paper gains on illiq...
再说说DCF
一直认为DCF是估值的宗义，其实如果我们真的试图更加「專業」地來解釋、計算不同資產的價值，DCF是所有模型的基礎，不管是P/E，P/B，PEG，其實都是對於資產價值的不同表述方式，其實都是一回事。
但是實際中。DCF的可用性到底有多強，未來5-10年資產對於所有人的自由現金流怎麼...
10年期美债的breakeven inflation现在应该在2.2-2.3%之间，美联储 revised monetary policy framework里面对于一定时间内通胀的平均水平说明是可以容忍短期内较高的通胀的。
需求因为一个纯粹的外部因素突然被snuff out，当疫苗注射进程加快，经济持续回复，需求是可以「静悄悄」地恢复的，其...
Takeaways from BlackRock Insights on Assets Allocation Feb/2021
#1 Accelerated returning to normalcy with vacci roll-out
#2 Growing disposal income expected to fuel economy restart
#3 Eyebrow-raising fiscal and monetary stimuluses call for ample liquidity and more risky-taking appetite
#4 Higher inflation expected as reflected...