发布于: iPhone转发：0回复：10喜欢：1
回复@Bear_Prince: Indeed weaker headline and Core CPI cross board. This should allow Fed to provide clear guidance for September cut on July FOMC. Should also start a run on IWM breaking out today
查看图片//@Bear_Prince:回复@Eugeneng:👍 headline的CPI会有energy但是基本bake在了estimate里，Core CPI市场比较看重，它是excludes food和energy。当然油价本身上升会pass through到一些其他项目，比如运输费，甚至物价本身，都会收到影响。鉴于最近中东有停战趋势，我觉得市场会look pass it。而且我觉得来自shelter和car insurance disinflation pressure会更大一些。我比较期待这周in line or weaker CPI read。我觉得$美国石油指数基金-Concierge Technologies(USO)$ 是个比较好的level buying some put or put spread, 1st PT 77.5, 2nd PT 74.5. 譬如July 26 78/75 put spread cost $0.4，或者久一点到Aug的 78 put
查看图片
引用：
2024-07-04 00:54
近期最不同寻常的macro事件，可能要数Donalds Trump vs Joe Biden的第一次debate了。可怜年老的Sleeping Joe被拉上电视公开处刑，让全美乃至全世界的的观众狠狠吃了一瓜。
很多媒体判断，民主党此次预判了拜登会shit pants, 所以就干脆把他凌迟，顺理成章换成新的候选人。
目前Kamala Harr...

全部讨论

Bear_Prince
07-11 21:12

Core CPI 实际上came in only +0.06% MoM vs +0.22% median forecast which is much milder than expected(lowest in 3 years. This lowers three month annualized Core CPI to only +2.1% which is also lowest since pandemic. Shelters really are cooling off(good) and car insurance continues to drop. Really across board weaker print in different categories

绿油油的小九
07-11 20:40
查看7条回复

IWM等的我好苦啊，终于要胜利了吗

Tpton
07-11 21:22

TNA冲冲冲！