发布于: 修改于:雪球转发:0回复:8喜欢:6

说出来可能我自己都不信,但只看数字,我为什么有种直觉,尽管这种直觉非常反我自己的印象:

1. 当下amzn有可能比metagoogle实际上还便宜一些

2. amzn对temu的容忍程度可能非常的高,或者说当temu被亚麻控制在一定体量稳定后,我们会见识到亚麻电商真正的恐怖的盈利能力,我感觉会远超当前市场的最乐观projections。。。

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亚麻真的太能花钱了,比meta离谱多了。。。

temu想动摇亚麻的根基,我几乎无法想象,当然黄峥也许是个创造奇迹的男人,但不要因为temu去做空amzn

美股的泡沫并不在faamg,200亿以上市值的美股,扔飞镖,80%都比fag贵。

全部讨论

06-01 11:03

亚麻自己披露的fcf 极度夸大。。。

06-04 12:57

Technology and infrastructure costs include payroll and related expenses for employees involved in the research and development of new and existing products and services, development, design, and maintenance of our stores, curation and display of products and services made available in our online stores, and infrastructure costs. Infrastructure costs include servers, networking equipment, and data center related depreciation and amortization, rent, utilities, and other expenses necessary to support AWS and other Amazon businesses. Collectively, these costs reflect the investments we make in order to offer a wide variety of products and services to our customers, including expenditures related to initiatives to build and deploy innovative and efficient software and electronic devices and the development of a satellite network for global broadband service and autonomous vehicles for ride-hailing services. We seek to invest efficiently in numerous areas of technology and infrastructure so we may continue to enhance the customer experience and improve our process efficiency through rapid technology developments, while operating at an ever increasing scale. Our technology and infrastructure investment and capital spending projects often support a variety of product and service offerings due to geographic expansion and the cross-functionality of our systems and operations. We expect spending in technology and infrastructure to increase over time as we continue to add employees and infrastructure. These costs are allocated to segments based on usage. The increase in technology and infrastructure costs in absolute dollars in 2023, compared to the prior year, is primarily due to an increase in spending on infrastructure and increased payroll and related costs associated with technical teams responsible for expanding our existing products and services and initiatives to introduce new products and service offerings.
好吧。。亚麻的cogs记账有点和正常公司不一样。。那我的印象还是对的。。还是要看sec的原始财报。。不能偷懒

06-02 10:55

太赞同了。大家对过去10几年亚麻在物流方面的投入和当前的效率差是严重低估的。同样是末端,DSP 可比 fdx 和ups 的单量密度大多了。所以我一直觉得 temu 最大的机会还是在非美国的地方。

没明白 “或者说当temu被亚麻控制在一定体量稳定后,我们会见识到亚麻电商真正的恐怖的盈利能力”

刚看完贝索斯的《长期主义》,亚马逊真是少见的拥有不断进化能力的伟大公司。

06-01 09:50

看起来确实不贵,不太明白的是,如果进入衰退周期,faamg 的业绩会有啥变化