| 发布于: | Android | 转发：46 | 回复：135 | 喜欢：7 |
碰到黑天鹅很正常，但在黑天鹅的结构性变化下，有些变成了做多的机会，有些变成了做空的机会，这才是我们的机会。你给的很多信息是有问题的，我们不认识我也没必要多说什么，周末有点空，看你的自选组合重仓了$第一共和银行(FRC)$ ，之前有过互动，所以说两句。比如你认为银行的资产端结构和$硅谷银行(SIVB)$ 都差不多，请问你还能找到哪个区域性银行的资产端有那么多证券的？第二名都和他们差了20%，而我覆盖和挑选的银行证券组合占资产端比例都不到20%，所以这个对SIVB真的是黑天鹅？资产端结构真的差不多吗？你觉得第一共和银行经营没有问题？好吧，我这么跟你说，在美国你要三十年按揭，除了第一共和，没有一家银行能开到5%以下的利率，第一共和靠得是什么？对风险定价不足是不是经营的问题？第一共和有多少证券组合，未兑现损失有多少，为什么没有人接？第一共和的混合按揭和固定利率贷款加起来占到总贷款的多少？（给你答案吧，超过70%），这部分银行年报里说的清清楚楚已经浮亏220亿美金了，远远远远大于证券类资产的48亿损失，这一点在你的文章里风险提示了吗？给那么大比例的5-10年ARM，他们考虑过久期错配没有？他们担心过自己的储蓄里绝对高于同行的FDIC非保险业务吗？如果有，还敢这么放房贷？
周一的时候他的一家同行跌得比他还惨，但周五的公告出来了只丢了10%的储蓄，一周的跌幅远小于第一共和。大家遇到的都是一样的黑天鹅，覆盖差不多的地理位置，为什么一家抗得这么漂亮，而第一共和却变成了扶不上墙的烂泥？我觉得这些是你在投资决策的时候要思考的。
如果要引用我的话，请引用全。银行投资需要专业知识和技能，所以这次抄底的难度更大。所以我推荐的都是etf比如iat和kre，而不是银行的个股。上周博反弹我也不会用frc，wal显然是一个更好的博反弹的工具。
最新的报价已经涨到20亿美元了，瑞士金融监管局也同意了，立法机构甚至在想法子临时修改法律，可以绕开股东投票，以免夜长梦多。太赤裸裸了。
一些金融机构也表态了，比如英格兰银行就表示乐见其成。
UBS, Switzerland's biggest bank, agreed to acquire global investment bank Credit Suissefor over $2 billion, according to the Financial Times on Sunday.
UBS' original offer to buy Credit Suisse was $1 billion, reported the newspaper. Swiss authorities were considering changing laws to bypass a shareholder vote on this deal in order to speed up the acquisition.
Swiss authorities plan to amend a law requiring a shareholder vote on the matter, in an attempt to secure the deal before markets reopen on Monday.
西方强盗本质显现
最新的报价已经涨到20亿美元了，瑞士金融监管局也同意了，立法机构甚至在想法子临时修改法律，可以绕开股东投票，以免夜长梦多。太赤裸裸了。
一些金融机构也表态了，比如英格兰银行就表示乐见其成。
UBS, Switzerland's biggest bank, agreed to acquire global investment bank Credit Suissefor over $2 billion, according to the Financial Times on Sunday.
UBS' original offer to buy Credit Suisse was $1 billion, reported the newspaper. Swiss authorities were considering changing laws to bypass a shareholder vote on this deal in order to speed up the acquisition.
Swiss authorities plan to amend a law requiring a shareholder vote on the matter, in an attempt to secure the deal before markets reopen on Monday.
不见舔🐶们了！
按这个价格，瑞信只值10亿美元？大A最便宜的银行都不止
瑞信的商业银行部分其实还比较正常，但是投行部分亏得十分离谱，不知道为啥前几年董事会不早把投行部分分拆卖掉？那时候还卖得出去。这几年投行部分上了多次丑闻榜，每次都亏得离谱，商业银行部分辛苦赚的小钱根本不够投行亏的，现在看投行要把商业银行给拖垮了。
关键时刻，法律可以钻空子，脸面不重要，小命重要！中立国不中立！未来今年中东，亚洲的资金存款可能还会大搬家出离瑞士
坐等明晚欧美银行血流成河。
是的，比周五收盘价跌了87%。$第一共和银行(FRC)$ 也同理，欧美市场的中小银行周一将集体暴雷，血流成河 @冷小二 @妙新银BoomBust周期 大佬们怎么看？
定了！30亿瑞郎全股票交易，赶在亚洲股市开盘前。
UBS (NYSE:UBS) confirmed on Sunday thatit agreed to acquire struggling Credit Suisse (NYSE:CS) for a total of CHF 3B (US$3.25B) in a stock-based transaction that also provides downside protection for the larger UBS. The deal was struck in an effort "to restore necessary confidence in the stability of the Swiss economy and banking system," Credit Suisse said.
The transaction, the result of a Swiss government-led negotiation, has the full support of Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Finma, and the Swiss National Bank.
Under the terms of the agreement, Credit Suisse (CS) shareholders will get one UBS share for every 22.48 Credit Suisse shares, equivalent to CHF 0.76/share. Credit Suisse shares last traded at CHF 1.86 in Zurich on Friday.
"UBS (UBS) benefits from CHF 25 billion of downside protection from the transaction to support marks, purchase price adjustments and restructuring costs, and additional 50% downside protection on non-core assets," UBS said. In addition, both banks have unrestricted access to the Swiss National Bank existing facilities, which can provide liquidity to them according to guidelines on monetary policy instruments.
On Sunday, Credit Suisse (CS) was informed that Finma has determined that Credit Suisse's Additional Tier 1 Capital in the aggregate nominal amount of ~CHF 16B will be written off to zero.
The combination of the two banks is expected to generate annual run-rate of cost reductions of more than $8B by 2027. UBS (UBS) expects the deal to add to EPS by 2027 and the bank remains capitalized well above its target of 13%.
The transaction isn't subject to shareholder approval. UBS (UBS) has obtained pre-agreement from Finma, Switzerland's financial markets authority; Swiss National Bank; ths Swiss Federal Department of Finance and other core regulators.