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$西蒙地产(SPG)$ 

整个业绩会来看,David听起来比较乐观,认为这就是底部了。整个业绩会,人很放松。下面记录一些我认为比较重要的点。我也把David和管理层的原话放在下面。

所有的对retial brand的投资,一共330m。包括forever21, brooks brothers, Sears等所有的投资。这些投资能够产生的EBITDA是260m。(SPG分配到的部分)

This range includes approximately $0.15 to $0.20 per share from our retailer investments.

Again, keep in mind that we can't add back or we don't add back depreciation for those investments. That's our growth range of 4.3% to 7% compared to our full year of 9.11% and just no more - our diluted share count will be 3.76%,

成立了一个SPAC公司,不知道干什么用。

As many of you know, we recently filed the Form S-1 with the SEC to raise $300 million and a Simon sponsored Special Purpose Acquisition Corporation i.e. SPAC. We are currently in a quiet period for the filing and are unable to speak to it about the proposed offering at this time.

在回答什么时候能够回到19年是的水平,David blabla的一大堆,没有给出任何有指导意义的信息。、

we hope to be able to certainly increase our occupancy for 2021. And it's going to take some time to obviously get back to where we were in 2019.

NOI 2021年增长5%。后面David明确了,这个NOI增长,是不包括Taubman的物业的。

I'd say generally around 5% in the comp NOI number. We have a reserve. We're turning the corner, it's kind of my phrase, but are we completely out of the woods? Not yet, but well on our way.

非常确定credit rating不会被downgrade。

There's just no way we're going to get downgraded, not a chance. So next question.

Rating agency把SPG放入观察名单,仅仅是因为疫情的原因。而不是由于并购了Taubman或者是是财务指标的问题。

florida除了国际旅游客人之外,其他基本恢复了。Taxas也恢复的很好。

在回答用什么样的零售租户作为anchor tenant的时候。David看起来并没有胸有成竹的答案。一开始先提到了餐厅。Mixed-use Effort. 后来才给了几个大型的连锁零售商的名字。Kohl's, Dicks等。

David把现在的情况和2008、2009年做了一个对比。他认为,SPG还会像2009年之后那样。恢复增长。而且现在在资产质量、国际化等方面比之前还要好。

在被问到疫情之前和之后的租约条款是否有所改变的时候。David说,租期变短了。现在只有2~3年。在面临很大不确定性的时候。较短的租期确实是一个比较好的选择。因为之后的价格很难谈拢。

有一个mortgage loan的物业,refinance的时候条款无法谈拢。SPG已经放弃。

在回答一个分析师有关A mall的cap rate的问题,SPG是否倍低估的时候,David非常有意思。他从另外一个角度来回答了这个问题。因为bam正在忙于收购bpy。所以spg已经是这个市场唯一的买家。言下之意,他希望能够尽量利用这个优势。Arbitrator of cap rate.

David提到,SPG刚刚完成了一个交易。

On releasing spread,如果出掉box的影响,是没有下降的。

Just a quick one. You mentioned boxes were skewing the 2020 releasing spreads. Could you tell us if they would have been positive if you strip those out and just give us any color on 2021 activity as well?

David Simon

Tom Ward is shaking his head. Yes, and for those of you who know Tom Ward, you can count on it. They would have been positive, yes.

对于新的redevelopment物业,8%是一个没有杠杆的收益率,也就相当于cap rate。所以是一个很fair的回报率。

Ki Bin Kim

Just talk about your development pipeline, the yield of 8%, I don’t think that's changed over the past couple quarters. I'm just curious is that because the projects are pretty much leased and ready to go so there's not much risk to that yield? And secondly, if you had to put new dollars to work, is 8% on development or redevelopment enough to justify it?

Brian McDade

Well, the answer is it hasn't changed much because the development - I mean, not much has changed. I mean, it's been in lockdown as you know, in dealing with COVID. So we hope to look at where we can accretively add, and the answer is no. 8%, there is - no guide it’s got to be over 8% or 9%. It’s got to be what's the value of the property, what it's going to do to the property. I mean, if the property is an 8% cap rate property.

And you get an 8% return, you're essentially treading water unless you think you're going to suddenly make it a 6% property which is possible in certain redevelopments. On the other hand, if you spend an 8% on a 5%, then you’ve made a lot of money. So it - everything boils down to the specific real estate that we're trying to create over a long-term basis.

Now remember, we give you these numbers kind of more or less out of the box. But if you get 8% with growth, I mean, that's a pretty good return, unlevered return going forward. So again, it depends on the real estate.

全部讨论

感觉太乐观了,NOI至少需要两三年才能恢复到19年的水平,而且从此之后增速会很慢了。cap rate他们说了算,更加代表这个市场没人看好了,电商对美国人的冲击会越来越大

2021-02-11 21:19

感谢分享!如果业绩能恢复增长,就是最大的好消息

2021-02-10 22:22

$西蒙地产(SPG)$ 最艰难的时刻一起度过,曾经最高占超过一半的仓位,刚刚已经降下来。但是,跟老朋友难说分手,继续持有部分仓位和CALL防踏空。