$Brookfield资管(BAM)$ 从历年#博枫股东信#中，随手摘选一些时效性不强的文字。
为节省精力，用有道机器翻译的，有很多词不达意的地方，所以都附上中英对照。
【Investment Strategy 投资策略】
Investment success requires a combination of skill, patience and luck. Over time, with hard work most investors can acquire the skills; patience comes with experience; and often you have to be positioned to be lucky.
投资成功需要技巧、耐心和运气的结合。随着时间的推移，通过努力工作，大多数投资者都能获得技能; 耐心来自经验;通常情况下，你必须要有幸运的定位。
Two important items that can enable positioning for luck are finding a business where the pie for everyone is expanding, and investing in countries or companies that are well run. In short, it is easier to ride the wave than fight the tide.
有两件重要的事情可以让运气定位，一是找到一个每个人的蛋糕都在扩大的业务，二是投资于运营良好的国家或公司。简而言之，乘风破浪容易，逆水行舟难。
Over the longer term, it is very difficult to generate strong returns in an industry, or in a currency, that is declining. With a publicly traded company, one can sometimes work to shrink the float of shares at big enough discounts to tangible value that one can earn good returns, but it is hard work. Examples of these types of businesses over the last 20 years include paper mills, textiles, and newspaper businesses – and more recently, businesses disrupted by new technologies. The only other way investors have done well in these declining businesses is to have acquired the business cheaply enough, milked the cash flow, and reinvested it into new businesses. These are anomalies, as the returns were unrelated to the old business and were, in fact, dependent on an individual who was a good capital allocator redirecting cash flow to new investments.
从长期来看，一个正在衰落的行业或货币很难产生强劲的回报。对于一家上市公司，人们有时可以努力减少股票流通股，使其在有形价值上有足够大的折扣，从而获得良好的回报，但这是一项艰巨的工作。在过去20年里，这些类型的企业包括造纸厂、纺织业和报业，以及最近被新技术颠覆的企业。投资者在这些衰落的业务中取得好成绩的唯一其他方法是，以足够低的价格收购业务，榨取现金流，然后再投资于新的业务。这些都是异常现象，因为这些回报与旧业务无关，事实上，它们依赖于一个善于配置资本的人，他将现金流重新引导到新的投资上。
This brings us to our business of alternative asset management. Thirty years ago, bonds dominated pension portfolios; 20 years ago equities became very large components of institutional portfolios. Since then, equities have proven to be volatile and fixed income returns are now almost non-existent. As a result, we have seen continuously expanding allocations to alternatives – including real estate, infrastructure, private equity and hedge funds. All indications are that the growth of alternatives will continue to be positive for a long time.
这就引出了我们的另类资产管理业务。30年前，债券主导着养老金投资组合;20年前，股票成为机构投资组合中非常重要的组成部分。自那以来，事实证明，股市波动较大，固定收益收益如今几乎不存在。因此，我们看到投资另类资产的资金不断增加——包括房地产、基础设施、私人股本和对冲基金。所有迹象都表明，替代能源的增长将在很长一段时间内继续保持积极的势头。
Furthermore, since the financial crisis in 2008 we have seen consolidation starting to occur amongst alternative managers. This is creating a number of super-brands which are separating from the rest, as they have global reach, resources to achieve best-in-class governance standards, size to attract attention, and investment track records to assemble large sums of capital in multiple funds for institutional clients. The ability to provide a wide range of solutions to clients is an attractive alternative to having to otherwise vet possibly hundreds of managers, and enables managers to put large sums of money to work efficiently. As a result, institutional clients are increasingly allocating their capital to a smaller number of larger funds. We are among the fortunate few who possess this type of franchise.
此外，自2008年金融危机以来，我们看到另类管理公司之间开始出现整合。这造就了一批超级品牌基金，它们正与其他品牌基金区别开来，因为它们拥有全球业务范围、能够实现一流治理标准的资源、能够吸引眼球的规模，以及能够为机构客户汇集大量资金的投资记录。为客户提供广泛的解决方案的能力是一个有吸引力的替代方案，否则必须审查可能数以百计的经理，并使经理能够将大量的资金高效地工作。因此，机构客户越来越多地将资金配置给数量较少的大型基金。我们是拥有这种特许经营权的少数幸运儿之一。
Overall, we continue to believe that by simply compounding existing capital, we are heading to a +$50 trillion industry. As important, allocations to real assets have grown from virtually nil years ago to 10% on average today, and we estimate they will increase to 20% or more. As a result, in excess of $10 trillion of incremental capital will be available for the sector, a five- fold increase from today. Of course, institutions will range in allocations based on many factors, but as an example we expect that select institutions will have over 50% allocations to alternatives in the short term.
总之，我们仍然相信，通过简单地组合现有资本，我们将走向一个50万亿美元以上的行业。同样重要的是，对实物资产的配置已从几年前的几乎为零增长到如今的平均10%，我们估计还将增加到20%或更多。其结果是，将有超过10万亿美元的增量资本可用于该行业，比目前增加了5倍。当然，机构的配置会根据许多因素而有所不同，但作为一个例子，我们预计部分机构在短期内会有超过50%的配置在另类投资上。
We believe that we continue to be in a very robust industry, and therefore our focus is not on major strategy change, but instead on relentless execution of our plans. Our goal is to generate strong returns by investing wisely, and to ensure we take care of our clients. As long as we do this, we believe we can grow at a strong pace for decades to come.
我们相信，我们仍然处在一个非常强劲的行业，因此我们的重点不是重大战略改变，而是坚持不懈地执行我们的计划。我们的目标是通过明智的投资产生强劲的回报，并确保我们照顾我们的客户。只要我们这样做，我们相信我们可以在未来几十年以强劲的速度增长。
【Interest Rates 利率】
We have been running our business with the expectation that interest rates will increase, particularly in the United States; in fact, we welcome this. Interest rates will rise because the economy is improving and that is positive for business.
我们在经营业务时一直预期利率会上升，特别是在美国;事实上，我们对此表示欢迎。利率将会上升，因为经济正在改善，这对商业是积极的。
Rates have been virtually at zero in the United States for seven years, the economy is doing well and a 1% or 2% increase in interest rates on the short or long end of the treasury yield curve means almost nothing to a long- term investment. We have assumed for six years that a 10-year treasury would have a 4% to 5% yield – not 2%, and we have based all our decisions on this. There are very few sophisticated acquirers of real estate or infrastructure that have had a different view. Returns may be slightly less going forward, but cap rates (the inverse of the return) have been stubbornly high relative to interest rates for one specific reason…that everyone knew interest rates were going up and people have not been willing to reduce the cap rates to levels that were unduly low, acknowledging that rates were going to go up.
7年来，美国的利率几乎为零，经济表现良好，短期或长期国债收益率曲线一端的利率上升1%或2%对长期投资几乎没有任何意义。六年来，我们一直假设10年期美国国债的收益率为4% - 5%，而不是2%，我们的所有决策都是基于这一点。很少有经验丰富的房地产或基础设施收购者持有不同的观点。未来的回报率可能会略低，但资本化率(与回报率相反)相对于利率一直居高不下，原因有一个:每个人都知道利率会上升，而人们不愿意将资本化率降至过低的水平，承认利率会上升。
Our business is positioned to thrive in a higher interest rate environment; there are four simple reasons for this. First, and most important, we own “real return” assets that increase their cash flow generating capacity over time either through contractual rights, our ability to operate them better, or an expansion of the operation. These enhancements should far outpace any extra interest costs, in particular in a more inflationary environment. Second, we generally earn total returns on equity of 10% to 20%. This is much greater than treasury yields and therefore a 1% increase does not really matter. Third, we finance approximately 50% of our investments with debt. Moving interest rates up by 1% impacts our returns by 1% to 2%, which is not meaningful. And fourth, most prudent property and infrastructure investors have fixed rate debt, therefore cash flows until maturity of that debt will not change at all, period. Nothing at all.
我们的业务将在高利率环境中蓬勃发展;这有四个简单的原因。
首先，也是最重要的是，我们拥有“实际回报”资产，通过合同权利、我们更好地运营它们的能力或业务的扩展，随着时间的推移，这些资产的现金流产生能力会增加。这些改进应该远远超过任何额外的利息成本，特别是在通货膨胀加剧的环境中。
其次，我们的总股本回报率通常为10%至20%。这比国债收益率高得多，因此1%的增长并不重要。
第三，我们约50%的投资是通过债务融资的。利率上升1%会影响我们1%到2%的回报，这是没有意义的。
第四，大多数谨慎的房地产和基础设施投资者都有固定利率债务，因此在债务到期前的现金流不会发生任何变化，就是这样。什么都不重要。
The broader point is that interest rate increases really do not have a major adverse impact on us, with the exception of one circumstance. That exception would be an increase to 7% to 8% in the shorter term, in which case there would be significant disruption to many businesses, including real estate and infrastructure. We have planned to be able to sustain this type of shock, although there is no doubt it would not be fun for any of us. And it might even lead to some tremendous opportunities for us. But, for the record, we believe the chance of this occurring in the next five years is very low, although you should make your own assessment and act accordingly if you believe this is a likely scenario.
更广泛的观点是，加息确实没有对我们产生重大的不利影响，除了一种情况。
这一例外情况是，短期内增幅将增至7%至8%，在这种情况下，包括房地产和基础设施在内的许多业务将受到严重干扰。
我们已经计划能够承受这种类型的冲击，尽管毫无疑问，这对我们任何人来说都不会是有趣的。这甚至可能为我们带来巨大的机遇。
但是，郑重声明，我们认为这种情况在未来五年内发生的可能性非常低，不过，如果你认为这种情况可能发生，你应该做出自己的评估，并采取相应的行动。