神华H按照22年业绩派息11.45%，我估计按照今年业绩，也有10%。海油H按照球友的股息是9.x%,华润电力如果明年给个特别股息0.1-0.2元，那么股息也有8%。我打算把未来几年的收息，全部用于新能源（还是多押一点梦想），看股息，大家已经差别不大，差异大的是资产负债表和资本支出，神华光靠折旧就够资本支出，海油折旧摊销还不够，得拿出一部分利润，华润折旧+利润还得继续增加负债，换来的结果也正好是成长性华润电力好于海油，海油好于神华。
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神华H按照22年业绩派息11.45%，我估计按照今年业绩，也有10%。海油H按照球友的股息是9.x%,华润电力如果明年给个特别股息0.1-0.2元，那么股息也有8%。我打算把未来几年的收息，全部用于新能源（还是多押一点梦想），看股息，大家已经差别不大，差异大的是资产负债表和资本支出，神华光靠折旧就够资本支出，海油折旧摊销还不够，得拿出一部分利润，华润折旧+利润还得继续增加负债，换来的结果也正好是成长性华润电力好于海油，海油好于神华。
请教山行老师如何看待海油增加低利润的天然气投资支出
押新能源梦想是指押华润？
神华的煤价怎么看？有向下预期。
海油的石油至少长期挂钩美元通胀。
华润电力有新增成长。会好点
全部用于华润电力？
如果地产问题慢慢软着落，东盟和阿拉伯外贸起来。9%的股息还是会被当成血包吧
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欧盟从2026年一月份开始对进口的原料铝，铁和钢，水泥，肥料，电力产品，氢收碳税, carbon chain网站预估从中国进口一顿钢需要缴纳碳税150欧元。中国直接出口的欧洲的钢铝原料比例不高。影响应该不大。
欧盟的碳税范围未来会增加，可能会覆盖化工产品和机电产品，汽车，生产一吨钢全过程（包括矿产，运输，提炼）需要5556到8333kwh电力，即相当于增加电力成本0.13-0.19元每千瓦时。比起向欧盟缴纳高额关税，不如直接从风电场购买绿电了。大量的炼钢厂，电解铝企业也得直接买绿电了。
Starting October 1, 2023, CBAM will apply to EU imports of iron & steel, aluminium, electricity, certain fertilisers, cement and hydrogen, as well as certain precursors (i.e. cathode active materials) and a limited number of downstream products such as screws and bolts. There is no materiality threshold. For example, if a Middle East producer exports 50 tons of fertilisers or steel to the EU - the producer would have to comply with CBAM requirements.
For organic chemicals and polymers, which were previously included in draft CBAM regulation approved by the EU Parliament in July 2022, the implementation was postponed and decisions with this respect will be taken during the interim period (by 2026). Inclusion of polymers and organic chemicals into the CBAM scope would be very important for Middle East producers, since many oil and gas downstream products would be in scope (i.e. high density polyethylene, low density polyethylene, normal alpha olefins, hexen, methanol, ethylene, ethylene dichloride, vinyl chloride monomer and others.)
Furthermore, by 2030, the scope of CBAM is expected to extend to all product groups covered by EU ETS or to the list of products with a risk of carbon leakage (i.e. crude petroleum and petroleum products, inorganic basic chemicals, industrial gases, synthetic rubber, non-ferrous metals and others). The EU shall also assess the methodology for indirect emissions and the possibility to include more downstream products. Currently there are no indications of plans to extend CBAM scope to LNG or natural gas.
Taking into account the plans to extend CBAM product scope, its influence on the Middle East producers would significantly increase over the next several years
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考虑到不同的竞争强度，也许有些资本支出未必一定会带来成长
差异大的是资产负债表和资本支出，神华光靠折旧就够资本支出，海油折旧摊销还不够，得拿出一部分利润，华润折旧+利润还得继续增加负债，换来的结果也正好是成长性华润电力好于海油，海油好于神华。