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NFP 分establishment survey和household survey。while establishment survey has a much more new hiring than est. Household survey shows UR at 4.0% vs 3.9%。有人会问为什么more job added但unemployment 反而beat呢？it has to do with 这两survey的difference以及增加的工作为government/health care jobs。Fed的降息target 大概为4.3%-4.5% UR。所以我个人认为这份report并没有当前premarket 反应那样差，more paycheck but one step closer to fed target(尽管我觉得不应该去设置这样一个target)。we will see how market close today。bond market的反应有一部分因为stronger AHE +0.4% vs +0.3%
ADP came in weaker 152k vs 173k, prior revised weaker as well. So far playing weaker labor market this week has working out 2/4
是这样的，这是一个可以玩一辈子的游戏，暂时不用太在意当前账户得失（当然盈利总是开心…)。弄清楚逻辑，找到适合自己的分析方法和管理方式更重要。我觉得很多人不愿意花时间去学习研究，于是错误认为一些逻辑知识并没有带来实际收益（也许根本上的理解和思维方式就不对，或者获得错误的信息），然后去迷信技术面或者yolo, 那不管在市场过了多少年都不会有长进～
我先写个commentary吧：CPI came in weaker across board. Both headline and core MoM and YoY weaker vs consensus. Like I said at last month CPI print, 通胀数据MoM主要的contributors shelter & auto insurance are both trending lower, 如同踩着刹车下山，虽然慢但是你知道方向往哪里。下午我们get fomc, 个人认为Fed dot plot不变，但如果他们acknowledge 近期labor market 的easing, I think we rally harder。我认为Fed会stay dovish或者说过去一个月的数据，没有太多理由去转鹰。Tomorrow we get PPI, 作者认为上个月数据的big downward revision让我觉得weaker的可能性更大，we will see。PPI之后大体能预估出PCE的estimate
Jobless 229k vs 220k with prior week also revised up. Making 3 out of 4 labor market data weaker
Jolts big miss对应我昨天提到的对这周labor market 数据的悲观，当然at minimum对TLT利好
最近有点忙 这周结束写～
这个基本上已经price in, 可以看front end ester vs ff or sofr m4 的spread。如果当前both price as 0 cut for ECB and fed 那么我同意你的观点，ECB dovish surprise it’s better hedge dollar short, 目前看的front end price, ECB deliver cut 不会对dollar as basket 有特别大的影响，当然你可以hedge event based on front end the time value是多少。in fact, I think market price too little for Fed to cut in July, 大部分的expectation 是September, 我认为bet for July risk reward 很好，I think short dollar is a good bet for that possibility
Ism有个price index was below consensus。所以这个ism read是euphoria outcome。labor market 的easing总是welcome的，lowering inflation expectation，too many idiots yelling for stagflation or higher for longer, 而又不愿意花时间去study data和reality。像我之前说的，市场的risk在于，you want weaker data but not too weak，以至于force Fed to act(usually too late)。stronger ism read today helps this scenario, weaker labor market helps lower inflation expectation/long end。通胀的问题，I expect lower inflation reading again，因为bigger part of MoM coming out of two category shelter and auto insurance, both are continuing downtrend
主要是市场price recession risk, 数据weak一点好但不能太weak, IWM就很难啰