这个基本上已经price in, 可以看front end ester vs ff or sofr m4 的spread。如果当前both price as 0 cut for ECB and fed 那么我同意你的观点，ECB dovish surprise it’s better hedge dollar short, 目前看的front end price, ECB deliver cut 不会对dollar as basket 有特别大的影响，当然你可以hedge event based on front end the time value是多少。in fact, I think market price too little for Fed to cut in July, 大部分的expectation 是September, 我认为bet for July risk reward 很好，I think short dollar is a good bet for that possibility