今天抽时间听了$鹦鹉螺体育(NLS)$ 刚发布的 FY22 Q1 电话会。和 $Peloton Interactive(PTON)$ 同处一个行业，我们可以作为预览，在 Peloton 8/26 发财报之前，从侧面了解到一些市场供需情况的变动。这里摘要一些有意思的地方：
1. 上一季度虽然是一年中的淡季，但 NLS 的营收增长达到 62%（远超预期）；
This quarter, as a reminder, we are comping the first full quarter that benefited from COVID-related tailwinds. Against that backdrop, I'm delighted to report that net revenue was up 62% to $185 million, representing the highest June quarter and the fourth highest of any quarter in the company's 35-year history.
2. 整体毛利率由于芯片、钢铁、运输和外汇因素受到了较大影响；
Approximately 6 points of the decline are due to increased landed product costs, spot buying of components due to the global shortage, inflationary increases in commodities, elevated logistics costs and lastly FX, partially offset by price increases that we implemented in the quarter.
3. SelectTech 哑铃产品销售比起去年疫情同期依然增长了 3 倍多；
A great example of solving our supply chain problem is our wildly popular SelectTech dumbbells. This quarter, we shipped more than 3x as many dumbbells as the year ago COVID-driven quarter, and I'm happy to say they are now available for immediate delivery on bowflex.com and at leading retailers.
4. 用户调查有 25% 的健身房会员表示不计划再回到健身房去；
As you know, we have continued to follow the sentiment of former gym goers for over a year now. 25% of former gym goers have consistently expressed that they have no plans to ever return to the gym, and many others are changing how they balance the gym and at-home based on an emerging hybrid work model.
5. NLS 对下一季度的营收指引是维持或轻微降低。
Demand growth for direct in Q1 and in the first month of Q2 have been trending to more typical seasonality patterns. Now that we successfully cleared the backlog, we expect direct sales in Q2 to be lower than Q1.
这些和 Peloton 有什么关系呢？首先，对应上个季度 NLS 的强劲增长，Peloton 的营收超预期应该悬念不大（分析师预测增长 52%）。另外虽然利润率承压是无法避免的，但由于规模效应，Peloton 可以将增加的成本更好的分摊到每个用户身上。
增长方面，我们可以看出整体的用户增长趋势已经放缓，如果接下来疫情不进一步恶化，Peloton 下个 Q 要想实现更高增长显然不能只靠卖单车了。当然 Peloton 也早已按照每年翻一倍的增长速度在布局战略，未来的几个 Q 的主角将逐渐变为跑步机和力量训练产品。而对比起来看， NLS 则完全没有精力去规划更高增长的策略，主要还是在跟着大盘波动而波动，他们在搞的北极星计划看上去更像是一个硬件厂商无奈的转型战略，pay-as-you-go 的打法以及 JRNY 系统完全是在抄 Peloton 几年前的作业 😂