成长的“价值”误区

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Common yardsticks such as dividend yield, the ratio of price to earnings or to book value, and even growth rates have nothing to do with valuation except to the extent they provide clues to the amount and timing of cash flows into and from the business. Indeed, growth can destroy value if it requires cash inputs in the early years of a project or enterprise that exceed the discounted value of the cash that those assets will generate in later years. Market commentators and investment managers who glibly refer to “growth” and “value” styles as contrasting approaches to investment are displaying their ignorance, not their sophistication. Growth is simply a component --usually a plus, sometimes a minus--in the value equation.

—by Warren E. Buffett (2000)

翻译:常见的衡量标准,如股息收益率、市盈率或账面价值比率,甚至增长率都与估值无关,除非它们提供了有关企业现金流入和流出的数量和时机的线索。事实上,如果增长在项目或企业的早期需要现金投入,而这些投入超过了这些资产在今后几年产生的现金折现价值,那么增长就会破坏价值。一些市场评论员和投资经理巧妙地将“增长”和“价值”风格称为对比的投资方法,这显示出他们的无知,而不是他们的老练。增长是价值的组成部分,通常是正值,有时是负值。

感悟:

1、增长的质量:增长(营收增长)如果能带来稳定的现金流入时,有利于扩大市场份额,提高盈利能力的潜力,那是有价值的。但如果是以增加债务,重资本不断投入来实现增长(增收不增利),这种增长可能会损害公司的长期价值,降低总资产的利润率,是一个减分项。

2、增长的持续性:早期大量的现金投入,带来产能规模的大幅扩张,在光伏、新能源等行业表现尤为突出。每个行业大幅扩张产能一般来讲都是悲剧的开始,一方面可能是景气周期带来的乐观,另一方面可能是后续的价格战和产能出清带来的增长不可持续。

要警惕随着公司营收规模、净利润、产能等运营指标的增长,而带来的ROE,ROA的不断下降,且负债的不断攀升,这种增长大概率是有害的,是资本利用效率低的表现。

@光伏ETF_ @新能源ETF