$世茂服务(00873)$ $世茂集团(00813)$ $雅生活服务(03319)$ 少有的首发报告。瑞银在首发报告里建议卖掉世茂服务！ 觉得它的估值太贵了。

Shimao Services Holdings

Global Research

3 November 2020

High growth mitigated by uncertainty and potential de-rating; initiate with a Sell rating

High growth offset by uncertainty, initiate coverage with a Sell rating

We initiate coverage of Shimao Services with a Sell and a price target of HK$15.30 as M&A-driven growth could drive a share de-rating, like A-Living. Shimao Services, which is the management company associated with Shimao Group, had 125.5m sqm of contracted GFA in 108 cities by June 2020. We forecast a net profit CAGR of 71% 2019-22E (vs the sector average of 48%) for Shimao Services. The company has a guarantee with pre-IPO investors that implies 80%/74% 2019-21E revenue/net profit CAGRs. Despite faster-than-sector growth, its ability to win third-party contracts has a limited track record. Moreover, its reliance on M&A to drive growth (see Figure 7 for revenue driver breakdown) could result in a valuation multiple de-rating similar to companies with similar growth roadmaps (eg, A-Living and Languang Justbon trading at 16.7x and 7.3x 2021E PE). We view Shimao Services' current 24.9x 2021E PE (vs the sector average of 24.1x) as overvalued.