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【恒大的舌头伸到家私碗里了】
1、恒大,有组织有预谋的来吃家私这碗饭了。最近一两个月,陆续听到恒大楼盘买房送品牌家私券的活动信息。今天又收到一条。深圳恒大帝景项目,中秋三重礼:上门即送两箱恒大冰泉;5000元认筹享开盘96折;购房即送20万品牌家私券。于是,我得出了上面的推论。
2、精装修的妙处。恒大地产,本来就是中国精装修交房比例最高的开发商,接近100%。精装修这一价值环节已经吃了好多年。这是恒大楼盘畅销的利器之一。宣传1500元每平米的精装修标准,如果老百姓自己装成这样,真要花这么多钱。但是恒大做,800就够了。省出的700价值,就可以选择在总房价里“送”给老百姓,从而形成恒大楼盘突出的性价比优势——精装修比旁边的毛坯才只贵几百块。增加精装修环节,未必能提高企业综合毛利率,但因为提前、无偿占款,能够改善现金流,提高项目ROE。恒大、万科们都乐此不疲。
3、现如今,在精装修吃到甜头的恒大,将舌头进一步延伸到家私领域。同样的办法,用全国150座城市300个在售项目为筹码,与全国性的品牌家私厂家战略合作,拿到的折扣一定是全宇宙最低的,其他中小竞争对手难以复制的。客户买房一次性付了房款,买到的除了毛坯房和精装修外,还增加了零售价值20万元的家私券。羊毛虽然出在羊身上,但家私厂家给的折扣一定是被购房者和恒大瓜分了。送了券,现金折扣自然可以少些。由于购房到使用家私券还有很长一堆时间,这笔“预收款”可以被无常占用,和装修一个道理。可能损失毛利率,一定有利于ROE。
4、不是所有的社区O2O都可以吃到家私这碗饭。社区O2O,已经炒的如火如荼了,但总给人“捡芝麻”、挣小钱的感觉,缺少“杀手级”业务。而对一手新盘,家私家电,是罕见的刚需大蛋糕。一手楼开发商无疑掌握了这一需求的入口,但没有几百个楼盘的规模,也难以搭建平台。一向重视“大”的恒大,显然占得先机。马斯葛要改名恒腾网络了,家私这块肉会不会是其主营业务之一呢?
5、为什么又是恒大?恒大是精装修的先行者之一,是“无理由退房”的独家执行者,又是率先大规模吃家私蛋糕的开发商…… 总是先行一步,为何?

$恒大地产(03333)$

全部讨论

Based on my past practical experience, real estate developers usually evaluate any real estate development projects (in short "projects") by examining "Internal Rate of Return" (in short "IRR") of projected cash flow analysis, rather than appraising "Project ROE" (in Chinese "项目ROE"), of which the reasons was illustrated by following example of 3-year development periods:

Assume that one project company was 100% owned by the developer to which developer injected capital of 20 Mn, and the net profit margins of each fiscal year (in short "FY") were equal to net cash flow of each FY.

Please be reminded that all figures quoted below were for illustration purpose, of which the reasonableness should not be questioned.

Net Cash inflow/(outflow)'s Data:

initial time: (40) Mn

at 1st FY end: (-10) Mn

at 2nd FY end: 100 Mn

at 3rd FY end: 100 Mn

Then, the "Project ROE" of 1st, 2nd and 3rd FY would be -50% (-10/20), 500% (100/20) and 500%, so "Project ROE" (in Chinese "项目ROE") does not seem to be a reliable project appraisal tool due to its fluctuating numerical pattern supported by previous example.

2015-09-26 22:24

今天在东莞也看到了恒大华府买房即送家私的广告。

2015-09-26 20:17

地产行业利润越来越薄,恒大负债负担这么重,长期来看绝对是价值毁灭性的。之所以持有恒大,看中的是回购,许老板的市值管理预期,跌到今天基本没利润了,但是避过了a股大跌。回购结束后,我就不和大家玩了。

2015-09-26 17:38

长线投资,长期持有

2015-09-26 17:22

靠,太会做生意,赚了钱还帮了下游企业,让利给客户

2015-09-26 16:21

恒大是那种属于有超强竞争力的企业,从这些信息中就可以看出来。
但是股价然并卵,为何?

2015-09-26 14:50

顶一个,方法总比困难多!