发布于: 修改于:雪球转发:9回复:42喜欢:3

$Doordash(DASH)$ 22q1

Order 23%, GOV 25%, Revenue 35%.

Q1 2022 was our largest quarter for new consumer acquisition since Q1 2021, and Dasher supply remained healthy throughout the quarter. 


指引:

营收如果take rate 12%,就是6b,22% yoy。

业务分析:

变动的原因,10q里面写的清楚,不展开



电话会议:

doordash的使命

Our aspiration is to build the largest global local commerce business. And we want to do that by building two assets. 

We want to build the largest local commerce marketplace where we're bringing everything inside the neighborhood to you. 

And we also want to build the largest local commerce platform where we're giving tools to the physical businesses so that they each can become their own digital powerhouses.


doordash 市占率(55%-60%+)和渗透率:

Restaurants in the U.S. is $800 billion.I mean if you look at grocery and convenience, they add to over $1 trillion in the U.S. 美国餐饮大盘

I mean if you look at this opportunity globally in the restaurants category in the U.S. where even as the market leader, only 6% of total restaurant industry sales. =》外卖占美国餐饮大盘的10%+


投资哲学:

先做retention和order frequency,然后做ue,然后scale

But the investment philosophy remains the same where there's a maniacal focus on building the best-in-class products, a maniacal focus on getting laser-sharp on the unit map so that that's actually positive before we scale globally.


人力成本,下降,骑手供应充足。

是不是,相比“滴滴”,大家更愿意“美团”,前提是都开车。

US restaurant margin

margin和market share同时提升

物流网络优化,配送服务提升(refund和投诉),营销费用摊薄,广告业务scale


order frequency 提升,主要是dash pass造成的

on the DashPass, user order frequency has grown and you've also got an increase in mix toward DashPass. So those two things sort of act in concert with each other. 


22 ER, 总体感觉,管理层一般,ceo和cfo都是咨询背景出身。CFO存在感特别强,比较少见,相比之下,founder & CEO显得比较弱势。回答方面,并没有特别言之有物,相比airbnb这种,但比pdd那种,还是好很多。对比国内同行mt,对比王兴,那显然不如的。

网页链接




估值:

21年49亿营收。
22年~60亿营收,6.5~8亿利润,150-220亿市值, 20pe~30pe。



一点想法:


Doordash并没有美团履约端的壁垒。
美国点外卖,真的贵。。。

感性上不喜欢这生意,安全边际要高点,比如60×0.1×17 = 120亿usd

全部讨论

$Doordash(DASH)$ 

short doordash

1.美国外卖月度负增长了:可选消费,外卖费太贵了,虽然doordash还是正的
2.grubhub和amazon的合作,grubhub未来1年会gain market share,narratives变了
3.欧洲外卖Deliveroo and Delivery Hero both cut sales forecasts last week
4. doordash我看估值,有比较大的下跌空间, PT 40-45USD,现价71usd

2022-08-05 05:16

22Q2$Doordash(DASH)$ 

可笑的盘后,ah+16%

gov +25%,除去收购的wolt,只增长了22%
asp略微增长,通胀驱动。

营收增长30%
gp几乎不增长,4%

adj EBITDA超预期比较多,103m vs 57.5m, 但主要是财务操做出来的

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指引,预计下半年消费更加soft,但我们比其他commence都强。
全年51-53b GOV,12% tr

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就算8亿usd利润,盘后320亿usd对应40pe,非常乐观的价格,有概率是未来好几年的高点,找不到未来3年30%cagr的driver。rr非常差

SHORT!

2022-09-02 06:24

跟中国对接,组织大批大学生劳工去美国送外卖即解决美国人工成本高可以降低通胀,又解决中国大学生就业这个影响社会稳定的不稳定因素

2022-07-26 00:47

外卖行业边际变差,做空doordash
网页链接


The number of U.S. restaurant delivery orders dropped 6.3% for the 12 months ending in June to 4.8 billion, the first year-over-year drop the sector has seen since 2016, according to data by The NPD Group/CREST.



Analysts still believe food delivery will ultimately become a money spinner, given customers' love of convenience. But for the moment the sector has to cope with a cost-of-living crunch and companies will be judged on whether they meet margin, not growth, targets.



亚马逊和grubhub的合作
What the Amazon deal "does for Grubhub is it changes the narrative for them from one where they're losing share to one where they start to regain share, particularly in the short term," she said.



Deliveroo and Delivery Hero both cut sales forecasts last week.

2022-05-13 02:49

Since then DoorDash has only increased its market share, commanding 59% of all food delivery sales in the U.S. as of March, according to Bloomberg Second Measure.


DoorDash said it added more new consumers in the first three months of the year than at any time since the first quarter of 2021, helping push members of its DashPass subscription service to new highs.


The company had more than 10 million subscribers at the end of 2021.

网页链接