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[牛] 1993年巴菲特致股东信原文
Academics, however, like to define investment "risk" differently, averring that it is the relative volatility of a stock or portfolio of stocks - that is, their volatility as compared to that of a large universe of stocks. Employing data bases and
statistical skills, these academics compute with precision the "beta" of a stock - its relative volatility in the past - and then build arcane investment and capital-allocation theories around this calculation. In their hunger for a single statistic to measure risk, however, they forget a fundamental principle: It is better
to be approximately right than precisely wrong.
然而学术界喜欢用另一种方式定义“风险”，他们主张，风险就是一个股票（或一组投资组合）在过去的相对波动。用数据和统计学方法，他们针对每个股票计算出来一个准确的“贝塔系数”，并基于这个计算，建立起晦涩复杂的投资和资产配置的理论。尽管他们亟愿用一个简单的统计学系数来测量风险，他们遗忘了一个基础的原则：模糊的正确比精确的错误要好。
@大道无形我有型 大道老师，我google了一下，是经济学家凯恩斯最开始说的这句话，后来巴菲特引用这句话来说明现金流折现。Warren Buffet once quoted the economist John Maynard Keynes, “I would rather be vaguely right, than precisely wrong,” in describing how he determines the appropriate cash flow measure of a company.
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我今天在和年轻管理者分享的时候正好犯了这个错误，用了模糊的精确这个说法，还是没有读透大道的分享和老巴的股东书，其实我在理解模糊的精确的时候很变扭，毛估估应该是更靠近精确的模糊，但感觉又不清晰，但模糊的正确就很清晰了，毛估估的意思。