所以仓储成本是在fulfillment里,快递成本是在cogs里?是这么理解么?CHWY也没有披露outbound freight成本数字吧,但是披露了fulfillment,我理解是outbound freight成本可能不够material?
此外,除了估值恢复,其他产品的cross sell是一大亮点。相比于现在简单的单一产品barkbox,整个产品群可以提供超过100美元的monthly sub revenue.怎么把barkbox的客户群最低成本的转换是最关键的。管理层在今天的fireside chat提到目前他们还是很保守的采用给现有用户或是停止订阅用户发邮件来promote barkeat。未来希望看到更激进一点的扩张方案。毕竟,bark现在还处在抢地盘的阶段。
偶很同意你说的管理层目前在sand bagging。按照最近几个季度每个季度增加大约250k的sub,到FY2021年底(calendar 2021 Q1 )sub就可以到2M。FY 2022光主业就可以做到$600m, 算上副业提升每户用户价值,偶觉得FY2022(2021 Q2-2022 Q1)可以做到 >$700m
所以仓储成本是在fulfillment里,快递成本是在cogs里?是这么理解么?CHWY也没有披露outbound freight成本数字吧,但是披露了fulfillment,我理解是outbound freight成本可能不够material?
看CHEWY fullfillment的定义:
Fulfillment costs represent those costs incurred in operating and staffing fulfillment and customer service centers, including costs attributable to buying, receiving, inspecting and warehousing inventories, picking, packaging and preparing customer orders for shipment, payment processing and related transaction costs, and responding to inquiries from customers.
这个并不包括outbound freight.
你看 年报第42页,很清楚的说明了outbound freight在COGS里面。
Cost of Goods Sold and Gross Profit Cost of goods sold for Fiscal Year 2020 increased by $1.6 billion, or 43.8%, to $5.3 billion compared to $3.7 billion in Fiscal Year 2019. This increase was primarily due to a 48.9% increase in orders shipped and associated product costs, outbound freight, and shipping supply costs. The increase in cost of goods sold was lower than the increase in orders on a percentage basis, primarily as a result of realized supply chain efficiencies and change in mix of sales as hardgoods, healthcare, and proprietary brand businesses continue to grow faster than the overall business.
这是chewy的2020年报里的:For Fiscal Year 2020, Fiscal Year 2019, and Fiscal Year 2018 the Company recorded fulfillment costs of $ 871.0 million, $ 546.2 million, and $ 403.9 million, respectively, which are included within selling, general and administrative expenses in the consolidated statements of operations.
我看了chewy的年报,chewy也是把fulfillment cost(物流成本)放到SG&A下面的,而不是COGS里面。这样和Bark的毛利率口径其实是一样的。你是不是看错了,确认下。
是的,之前investor presentation active customer用的定义是最后一个月的订阅数。后来更新的SEC文件用的是你说的年度购买用户,之前的更像MAU。这样看,公司在某些财务指标譬如上有些sneaky,他完全可以用一个新的名词而不是会引起误解的active subscription来定义年度买家。
看了下1.7mm sub的来源和定义,这1.7指的是过去12个月订阅过一次的用户数,和阿里的annual active customer定义类似,并不是现在就active的sub,所以这是一个比较loose的定义,1.1m那个是紧口径的,是当月active sub,做财务模型这个可能过更相关。