A REALLY powerful narration of the Resorts International Bubble of 1978...
• Resorts next made its first move into what would become its major arena of business, when the company acquired Leeds & Lippincott Company, which owned Chalfont-Haddon Hall, an ocean-front hotel in Atlantic City, New Jersey, with 1,000 rooms, built in 1917. Resorts purchased 67 percent of Leeds & Lippincott in August 1976, and completed the acquisition the following month, paying a total of $2.489 million. In doing so, Resorts, the casino owner, was engaging in a little gambling of its own. The rundown Haddon Hall Hotel would only become a valuable property if casino gambling was legalized in Atlantic City. Although a previous state-wide referendum to legalize gambling in New Jersey had failed in 1974, on November 2, 1976, after heavy lobbying by casino operators like Resorts, a second referendum, which permitted casinos but restricted them to Atlantic City, passed by a large margin.[1976年,Resorts International的股价最低是2美元/股]
• Thus, Resorts possessed a potential gold mine, since it would have the right to operate a casino in the only area in the United States, outside Las Vegas, Nevada, where gambling was legal. The company announced plans for a $50 million renovation of the Haddon Hall Hotel, as well as the construction of a new casino. Resorts planned to import 150 pit bosses and other casino workers from its operations in the Caribbean to train New Jersey workers for jobs in its new casino. In addition, the company announced that it would name the new gaming complex "The Palace." After local objection, however, the company decided simply to name it Resorts International.
• By April 1978, Resorts had officially applied for a permit to open its new casino in Atlantic City. The company vowed, publicly, that it would open the doors to the gaming hall by Memorial Day. On May 17, 1978, Resorts was granted a six-month permit to operate a gambling casino in Atlantic City by the New Jersey gaming control board, and on May 26, 1978, Resorts opened the doors of the first casino on the East Coast. Customers who had travelled from around the country waited in line for hours on the Atlantic City boardwalk to try their hands at the slots and the gaming tables after the governor of New Jersey cut a ribbon to commemorate the opening of this facility.【Robert Wilson是那年2月份开始做空的,那时候Resorts International是8美元/股,看上去从1976年的低点,已经起来了4x了,是不是有一点高估?Robert的核心逻辑是,随着大洋城越来越多的竞争对手进来,Resorts短暂的垄断利润会很快飘散如烟,市场对Resorts的乐观,显然是短视的。】
• At the end of August 1978, Resorts reported a profit of $10.2 million for the first half of the year. As gamblers continued to flock to the only casino open, the company's profits soared. At the end of September, 1978, Resorts reported third quarter profits of $23.9 million, a level higher than the company's net income for the whole first six months of the year, and more than twice the earnings from that period, which had lasted twice as long. Resorts had, indeed, struck gold in Atlantic City. The company reported overall profits for 1978 of $51 million. 【但Resorts恰恰就是连续冲顶了,1978年9月13日星期二股价134.32,上涨17%,第二天上涨15%到154.47,第三天,也就是9月15日那一天,飙升23%上涨到永远的高点190美元/股,而Robert就是在那一天被Broker平仓了的,那一年,光是这样一个标的,他损失了净值的40%。他回来之后,看到资本利得税从40%降低到25%,开始大举做多市场,那一年最后还是赚了23%,但被拉了20+倍的体验,又谈何轻松!而那六个月,他刚好在欧洲旅行!。。。70年代,他做空了1000个股票,只有5个是对着他上涨的,然而就是这一个股票,可能就让他大多数其他的做空精力全部都白搭!】
• By the end of 1979, Resorts' monopoly in New Jersey had come to an end, as first Caesar's World, and then Bally's Park Place Casino Hotel opened on the Boardwalk. Nevertheless, the company reported profits for the year of $91.1 million, nearly twice the level of the previous year. By the start of the following year, however, Resorts had started to feel the pinch of competition, as first quarter earnings dropped 25 percent, to $14.2 million. In addition, the company faced dissent among its shareholders, for its failure to pay dividends, despite the vast increase in its earnings. In its efforts to capitalize on the booming casino market in New Jersey, Resorts had spent heavily, running up large debts, a circumstance which left the company in perilous financial shape, despite the runaway success of its casino on the boardwalk.【冲顶之后,Resorts很快就回落了。1978年12月5日那一天,新泽西博彩控制委员会在其州政府总检察长/Attorney General的反对下,没有拿到永久博彩牌照,目前的牌照在1979年2月25日过期,那一天Resorts收盘于27美元/股(A股)和46美元/股(B股)。1979年2月27日,Resorts拿到了“永久”经营许可,开到了50美元/股,比之前那个周五要高7美元/股,市值给到了6亿美金(和当时的希尔顿一样),而公司如果一年赚1亿美金的话,相当于EPS是8美元/股,所以按照190美元算是24xPE,而按照50美元算是6xPE左右,所以推起来还是有逻辑的,尽管我们都知道后来很多竞争对手进来了,1980年的利润就只有1979年的一半了。最后Resorts在80年代两次转手,1988年因为债务过多,宣告破产保护。】
这里我们可以看到一个明显的明斯基模型背后的泡沫生成机制,而且是有切实的利好,同时企业的盈利是有兑现的,1977年营收6120万,净利润250万;1978营收2.47亿,利润创纪录5100万,到了1979营收4.07亿,利润更是创纪录达到了9100万,还不断收购其他周边辅助资产,不断放利好刺激散户和机构的神经。赶顶阶段也是很明显的,就是不断快速拉升,Robert因为早早宣布了自己的逻辑和仓位变成了笑柄,而且不容易改变自己的思路和观点;索罗斯刚好相反,他什么都没有披露,一开始做空,后来反而转多!Resorts也没有再回到之前的高位了 -- 泡沫爆破之后,可以反弹(而且反弹可能很猛烈),但是基本面恶化或者没有改善的前提下,是不会再创新高了的。