目前，无锡电子盘与SMM锂价的大幅下跌，本质上对签长协的上市公司影响不大，反倒是很好的，出清中小矿企的方式，一旦这一部分的增量被打死，未来的锂矿上游企业将会有更强的议价权。这也是为什么目前这些上市公司迟迟没有形成所谓价格联盟的原因：中小矿企死得越多越好。
周期行业从来不是成本问题，而是供需问题，对于锂矿这样的大周期更是如此。提到供需，其实可以用光伏上游的多晶硅来类比锂矿，二者很大的联系与区别：首先从供给层面，硅料的供给除了能耗指标，几乎没有约束的，所以在短暂的时间窗口期之外，很难有暴利机会；但对于锂矿来说，南美盐湖+澳洲占总供给的60-70%，剩下的分散于中加俄非，有效供给时间很长，即使供给在慢慢上升，找矿探矿投产是速度是远远跟不上电车储能的增长的———所以无论是供给的响应速度还是弹性锂矿都远远小于多晶硅；而从需求层面，上下游博弈结构同样是需要考虑的：全球市场的多对多形式远远优于光伏上游硅片CR2大于75%的寡头结构，所以锂矿被压价的可能性远远小于多晶硅。而回顾多晶硅，开年后价格反弹与抢货历历在目，更何况上文分析中全方位都优于硅料的锂矿？所以综上所述，6-8倍对锂矿的估值，是非常悲观的，合理估值至少十倍以上。（这里不展开，非常建议大家看一下《Ups and Downs: Valuing Cyclical and Commodity Companies》）
而从技术面角度出发，在大部分经过近一个月的无量阴跌后，在3月20日完成了金针探底与之后一天的巨量长阳，本身就是反转的信号。另外，可以观察到的是，从去年十月开始，锂矿股和创业板指数一直有着极强的correlation，而创业板指数已经是明显的底部启动图形，对于锂矿板块来说无疑是另外一个定心丸。
随着机构在锂矿股即将到来的密集一季报期确定了行业景气度后，高位人工智能的资金必然回流赛道，而这个时候将是锂矿股迎来主升浪的最好时机。
放两个近期国外市场关于锂价的source吧，远没有国内能看到的这么悲观：
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锂云母cost curve艰难支撑
China's Small Lithium Carbonate Firms Are Going Bust as Prices Dive, Source Says
Small lithium carbonate producers are being forced to the wall in China as prices of the key material used in electric car batteries slide amid a rapidly cooling new energy vehicle market, according to an industry insider.
Sinking lithium carbonate prices are causing inventory to build up and difficulty in recouping funds, with some suffering huge losses and even going bankrupt, the source told Yicai Global.
Prices of battery-grade lithium carbonate plunged by an average CNY12,500 (USD1,820) to CNY300,000 (USD43,620) a ton today from yesterday, a new low this year, according to commodity information provider Mysteel.Com. Today’s price is down over 40 percent from the record high recorded last November.
Lithium carbonate producers are trying to speed up sales, but downstream players do not dare to buy, and are instead taking a wait-and-see approach, the insider added, noting that some overseas clients have canceled orders, contributing to the decline in prices.
中国外地区锂矿价格
Lithium prices have slumped in China this year, but outside of the country they are holding up much better, an indication that the battery raw material is still in short supply. Lithium hydroxide CIF Asia spot prices were last assessed by Benchmark at a $9,625 premium to the price in China..
中国交易所信用严重缺失
“There has been a significant loss in trust in the
exchange which has made market participants cautious of using it,particularly in China" says Cameron Hughes, price analyst at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.
Chinese producers of nickel are increasingly using
Chinese renminbi prices linked to nickel sulphate prices for the large volumes of supply being produced by Indonesia for the electric vehicle industry.
The shift has helped move pricing power away from the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing-owned LMEto
China,and also prompted greater volatility in LME prices potentially putting western nickel producers at a disadvantage.