文| 马丁·普林格 何晓 黄婧怡
报告摘要
On balance, the long-term indicators continue to point to a primary bear market. Most of our diffusion indicators are indicating lower prices, but some of the short-term indicators are oversold. That could trigger a near-term rally as the market bounces off support at 3040. However, in bear markets the surprises typically come on the downside and if 3,000 is breeched a more serious decline to 2500 would be expected. If a more amenable rangebound scenario unfolds, look to Chinext for a possible break above that 2,000 level.
—By Martin.J. Pring / 2018-05-31
[上证长期]：多指标继续释放看空信号，长期支撑点位为2500
[上证中期]：中期扩散指标急速下行，提示中期看空
[上证短期]：净新高指标处超卖水平，短期或出现反抽，但时间幅度均受限
[创业板指]：移动平均波动率指标具备向上突破基础，长期曲折向上趋势不变
[行业板块]：看多医药/可选消费，看空金融/材料/房地产，能源中性偏空
[深证成指]：多动量指标出现向下拐头迹象，未来大概率跑输上证
[恒生指数]：多动量指标提示市场脆弱性，后市看空
[全球股指]：向上趋势仍在，但多指标显示动量减缓隐忧
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sales@cebm.com.cn
财新智库莫尼塔，系财新智库旗下的独立投资研究与商业咨询公司，专注“宏观政策”、“市场策略”、“草根调研”与“海外研究”四大板块，服务国内外金融机构与企业客户。欢迎洽谈合作！
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