大江冬去 的讨论

发布于: 雪球回复:15喜欢:0
专业[很赞]  您这样水准都自称novice,我这样的连当韭菜都不配了[哭泣]
我也认为在页岩油的压制下,油价很难再回到14年的高峰了。之前有个说法是页岩油是骗局,但是看到雪弗龙大举进入Permian,我相信只少Permian的成本是有竞争力的,只是不知产能潜力有多大。
不过海洋石油毕竟占全球石油产量的30%左右,这可以完全被页岩油代替吗?如果答案是不能,那么OSD行业还是会生存下去,只是难现14年之前的辉煌。dayrate不太可能回到2014年的水平。
那么关键问题就是orig能否无需债务重组就生存下去,只要保证了这一点,该股目前的价格就有较大获利空间。因为Orig大约P/B在0.03,只有龙头ESV和RIG的1/10,比其他二线OSD公司也低很多。

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2017-02-16 22:48

谢谢!
我也读到过这几段内容,好像是2015年的年报里,不过没找到细节。不知道公司是否有义务披露细节。

可能我就是在SEC filing里面看到的。当时搜了一大堆内容,快速浏览了一遍有个大概印象但是没整理,记不住哪个信息来自于哪里了。

SEC filing得一个一个仔细读、仔细理,很繁琐。公司都会在各自filing文件里面做出风险提示。影响投资人的信息,该披露不披露是违法的。

比如这一段关于债务条款来自于16年的一个20-F:

In addition, our secured credit facilities, which are secured by mortgages on our operating drilling units, require us and certain of our subsidiaries to maintain specified financial ratios and satisfy certain financial covenants, including the requirement that the market value of the mortgaged drilling units under the applicable credit facility, determined in accordance with the terms of that facility, does not fall below a certain percentage of the outstanding amount of the loan, which we refer to as a value maintenance clause. In general, these financial covenants relate to the maintenance of (i) minimum amount of free cash; (ii) leverage ratio not to exceed specified levels; (iii) minimum interest coverage ratio; (iv) minimum current ratio (the ratio of current assets to current liabilities); and (v) minimum equity ratio (the ratio of value adjusted equity to value adjusted total assets). Any future credit agreement or amendment or debt instrument we enter into may contain similar or more restrictive covenants.

Events beyond our control, including changes in the economic and business conditions in the deepwater offshore drilling market in which we operate, may affect our ability to comply with these ratios and covenants. Our ability to maintain compliance will also depend substantially on the value of our assets, our dayrates, our ability to obtain drilling contracts, our success at keeping our costs low and our ability to successfully implement our overall business strategy. We cannot guarantee that we would be able to obtain our lenders' waiver or consent with respect to any noncompliance with the specified financial ratios and financial covenants under our various credit facilities or future financial obligations or that we would be able to refinance any such indebtedness in the event of default.

2017-02-16 21:35

明白。
只是有一点,现在公司市值只有$0.1B,已经油水很小了,GE要吃肉应该不会找这里下口吧。如果想养肥了再吃,现在似乎没有什么契机来实现。
倒是公司的11条船还比较新,有点价值,如果能以极低价弄到手,同时把债务逃掉,是把等待行业的轻微复苏可能油水还多些。

2017-02-16 20:47

太好了 谢谢
认真是应该的。

另外death spiral,其实即便债务违约也不是一定会走到这一步,所以这是个在基于GE的为人、还有ORIG不肯retire债务的事实基础上的speculation而已。如果出现了是绝佳的做空机会。

债务条款我是从一个网站上看到的,说债主可能会谋求orig控制权。回头找链接给你。国外网络环境里在这方面很少有谎言、谣言和不负责任的夸大其词,所以我倾向于相信里面对债务条款的说明。另外,你是个认真的人,赞~

2017-02-16 20:02

orig好像没有披露过债务的covenant详情,只是说公司目前没有触犯covenant,要想根据backlog等数据判断death spiraral也很难。

2017-02-16 18:54

谢谢。找做空的机会是个策略 [很赞]

我记得大上个季度的10-Q里面就有。不过,跟不确定性耗什么?做股票的原则是尽量寻找确定性。对于ORIG,我就等着如果它真的有death spiral financing,就可以做空。

2017-02-16 18:26

确实波动大,GE靠的就是这个吸引对手盘。不过这个钱很难挣,你的研究也许有助于你做好沙盘推演,在游戏中减少被动,争取主动。
你之前提到债务回购是由orig的子公司做的,而非借债人主体自己。您是这个意思吗?请问您是从哪个公告中看到的?