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回复@Bear_Prince: 感谢分享,确实没仔细看ISM具体的index。另外想问个题外话,关于美元指数大佬怎么看,各国央行相较于美联储提前降息,尤其ECB降息,欧元作为美元指数最大比重货币相对贬值岂不是利多美元?现在这个美元做空仓位需要提前平仓嘛//@Bear_Prince:回复@Zack_Capital:Ism有个price index was below consensus。所以这个ism read是euphoria outcome。labor market 的easing总是welcome的,lowering inflation expectation,too many idiots yelling for stagflation or higher for longer, 而又不愿意花时间去study data和reality。像我之前说的,市场的risk在于,you want weaker data but not too weak,以至于force Fed to act(usually too late)。stronger ism read today helps this scenario, weaker labor market helps lower inflation expectation/long end。通胀的问题,I expect lower inflation reading again,因为bigger part of MoM coming out of two category shelter and auto insurance, both are continuing downtrend
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2024-05-21 23:10
Duration在过去几天retreat from上周CPI day的高点。在没有过多经济数据出台以及多位Fed talking heads的情况下,过去几天市场缩量selling $美国国债20+年ETF-iShares(TLT)$ 。作者一直在静待合适时间再次买入。而今天Chris Waller的讲话,让作者认为时机差不多了。Chris Waller 和 James Bullard...

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06-06 01:01

这个基本上已经price in, 可以看front end ester vs ff or sofr m4 的spread。如果当前both price as 0 cut for ECB and fed 那么我同意你的观点,ECB dovish surprise it’s better hedge dollar short, 目前看的front end price, ECB deliver cut 不会对dollar as basket 有特别大的影响,当然你可以hedge event based on front end the time value是多少。in fact, I think market price too little for Fed to cut in July, 大部分的expectation 是September, 我认为bet for July risk reward 很好,I think short dollar is a good bet for that possibility