06-05 23:53
Ism有个price index was below consensus。所以这个ism read是euphoria outcome。labor market 的easing总是welcome的,lowering inflation expectation,too many idiots yelling for stagflation or higher for longer, 而又不愿意花时间去study data和reality。像我之前说的,市场的risk在于,you want weaker data but not too weak,以至于force Fed to act(usually too late)。stronger ism read today helps this scenario, weaker labor market helps lower inflation expectation/long end。通胀的问题,I expect lower inflation reading again,因为bigger part of MoM coming out of two category shelter and auto insurance, both are continuing downtrend