$富途控股(FUTU)$ 看了下财报，我觉得核心的miss只有一点：Q4 港股和美股的交易规模下滑幅度一致， 说明他已有的用户，无论是大陆的存量，还是hk/sg/jp的近期新用户，都对美股（中概除外）的小牛市无动于衷。这种情况下，要爆发的可能性就小了很多：
1. 降息或者其他原因，导致港股，中概大涨，存量大陆，hk的用户大幅度提升darts。 如果是降息的话，还要扣减掉一部分利息收入下降。
2. 降息， 导致海外用户，大规模改变理财属性，从现有的货币基金等被动行为更多的迁移到股票交易上来。 这部分概率很难说，而且即使有增长，也同样要对冲掉可能得利息收入下降。
现在利息收入和交易收入基本上1:1，合计占了90%+的收入。
基本盘还是很稳健：
1. 用增还可以；用增的指引也还可以；AUM都可以； 人在、钱在，留存在，总有机会。
2. 按年看， 23年交易规模下滑明显的情况下，交易收入几乎没变，隐含的takerate提升了。说明产品粘性还是可以，未来交易规模一旦上来，收入可以更大规模的上来。 按Q看，Q4的交易收入下滑和交易规模保持一致；推测隐含的takerate提升发生在Q4之前。（有空去追一下前面的财报看看）
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相关原文如下：
Q4 Revenues / 按Q看
- Total revenues were HK$2,373.3 million (US$303.8 million), an increase of 4.1% from HK$2,280.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2022.
- Brokerage commission and handling charge income was HK$904.0 million (US$115.7 million), a decrease of 13.8% from the fourth quarter of 2022. This was mainly due to lower trading volume.
- Interest income was HK$1,331.9 million (US$170.5 million), an increase of 17.1% from the fourth quarter of 2022. The increase was mainly driven by higher interest income from bank deposits and higher margin financing income due to an increase in daily average margin balance.
- Other income was HK$137.3 million (US$17.6 million), an increase of 45.6% from the fourth quarter of 2022. The increase was primarily attributable to higher fund distribution service income.
Full Year 2023 Financial Results Revenues /按年看
- Total revenues were HK$10,008.4 million (US$1,281.3 million), an increase of 31.4% from HK$7,614.0 million in 2022.
- Brokerage commission and handling charge income was HK$3,944.8 million (US$505.0 million), a decrease of 1.6% from HK$4,007.6 million in 2022. This was mainly due to lower trading volume, largely offset by higher blended commission rate.
- Interest income was HK$5,536.4 million (US$708.8 million), an increase of 72.2% from HK$3,214.3 million in 2022. The increase in interest income was mainly driven by higher interest income from bank deposits and securities borrowing and lending business.
- Other income was HK$527.2 million (US$67.5 million), an increase of 34.5% from HK$392.1 million in 2022. The increase was primarily attributable to higher fund distribution service income.