这是一个特殊事件投资(Special Situation)，类似于之前介绍的并购套利策略。
Wish，最初作为美国版拼多多亮相，疫情期间在全民撒钱的狂欢中业绩一飞冲天，市值最高时达到140亿美元，但如今，把过去烧了33亿美元“培养”出来的业务，作价1.6亿出售给新加坡电商Qoo10。
2024年4月19日交易完成后，上市公司ContextLogic目前市值1.4亿，与公司出售后的净现金相差10%出头。当然，这点折价咱熟悉中概的不觉得稀罕，虽然强行清算能获得一些溢价，但公司更大的价值，是作为减税资源。
富兰克林曾经说过：“这世界上，只有死亡和税是逃不掉的“，而Wish就能让你许下心愿，用它过去的血泪免去未来税务局的纠缠。
公司已经在声明中表示，打算寻找能实现其税收资产价值的交易，并聘请摩根大通和FTI咨询作为外部顾问。公司壳上拥有约27亿美元的联邦层面的经营损失，和90亿美元各州的经营损失。基于FTI给出的现金流折现计算，其每股价值大概是23.84美元。换算过来，大概等于资产负债表上5.8亿美元的递延税务资产。
总结来看，如果没有交易，立即清算，有10%溢价，考虑中间各种摩擦费用，会再减去几个点。如果能够找到交易，假设市场确实有效，考虑到要利用这笔经营损失，交易对手公司一定是有收入和可观盈利的，那最起码是可靠的公司，让我们稍微安心一些。这样如果实现的话，回报可能是300%以上。
这笔投资有几乎唯一的重要因素，那就是管理层可靠，在认真推动交易。如果管理层不干实事，准备在这养老，把公司账上的现金当作私家财产，那对股东可是灾难。至于是否能找到交易，应该不是难事，美国有很多盈利而且愿意上市的公司，Wish作为免税的壳资源，反而是稀缺品。
公司现在的大股东除了美国的指数基金，前几位里有知名的风投机构纪源资本(GGV Capital)， General Atlantic，和刚刚离职的CEO Jun Yan，同时也是纪源资本的合伙人（看背景在国内还有北大和中欧）。他们与管理层应该有多年的投资和工作经验，如果哪位朋友有更多相关信息，欢迎来讨论。
$ContextLogic(WISH)$ $ContextLogic(LOGC)$ $拼多多(PDD)$
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狸哥很懒05-17 10:50Ceo拿1刀薪水，董事减少，压缩开支，办公室也缩小改成远程办公。我觉得还是比较有意思的。
浮云过太空05-17 18:02NOL shell companies are not entirely unprecedented. After the US regional bank Washington Mutual failed during the financial crisis, its $6bn of NOLs were placed in a publicly traded company that launched in 2012. Eventually, private equity firm KKR invested hundreds of millions of dollars in that shell, known as WMIH. In 2018, WMIH finally merged with a real business, Nationstar Mortgage, at an aggregate valuation of $3.8bn. WMIH, the shares of which initially traded at around $10, are now above $70.
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pipee05-17 10:35长见识了，收购亏损公司免税这点之前确实没想到过。
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Ceo拿1刀薪水，董事减少，压缩开支，办公室也缩小改成远程办公。我觉得还是比较有意思的。
感谢分享。我也分享一个账面上递延所得税资产超过市值的公司，$The RealReal(REAL)$ ，当然，并购当中是都可以免税，需要满足一定的条件，比如据我了解大公司收购基本是不行的，一般要是 merge 才可以。
Federal NOL 算的没错。90亿美金state NOL价值没有计算，按照加州8.84%企业税率，90亿美金state NOL价值为8亿美金左右。加上federal NOL价值为5.8亿美金，实际账面金额是13.8亿美金的免税额度。NOL合计价值每股$58美金。加上6.5美金的现金估值，企业估值是$65美金／股。
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用gemini查了一下，这个Carryforward losses的使用应该还是有一些限制的。不知道ContextLogic能绕过去吗？
不过AI的答案经常有问题。
Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) can be a way to utilize tax loss carryforwards (NOLs) to offset income tax in the US, but there are limitations and anti-abuse rules to consider. Here's a breakdown:
How it can work:
A profitable company can acquire a company with a history of losses, inheriting its NOLs.The profitable company can then use these NOLs to offset its own future taxable income, reducing its tax liability.
Limitations and hurdles:
Section 382: This IRS regulation limits the amount of NOLs a company can use after an ownership change like a merger. The purpose is to prevent companies from simply buying NOLs to avoid taxes.Change of Business: The IRS may restrict NOL use if the acquiring company significantly changes the acquired company's business after the merger.Principal Purpose Test: If the primary reason for the M&A is to acquire NOLs and not for legitimate business reasons, the IRS can disallow the NOL benefit.
Overall, using M&A for NOL benefits is complex and requires careful tax planning. Consulting with a tax advisor is crucial to ensure the M&A structure complies with regulations and effectively utilizes the NOLs.
Here are some additional points to consider:
There are two main types of tax loss carryforwards: NOLs (applicable to businesses) and capital loss carryforwards (applicable to businesses and individuals, with different rules). M&A typically deals with NOLs.NOLs can be carried forward for a certain number of years, but they eventually expire if not used.
现在一把手原来是基金经理，别学巴菲特把现金拿去炒股票就好……
请问有没有Special Situation 群？我也有案例想请教