$Brookfield资管(BAM)$ 从历年#博枫股东信#中，随手摘选一些时效性不强的文字。
为节省精力，用有道机器翻译的，有很多词不达意的地方，所以都附上中英对照。
Data Infrastructure is the Next Frontier
【数据基础设施是下一个前沿】
For a number of years, we have been investing in the backbone infrastructure behind the internet and mobile phones. We have now reached critical mass with these investments, and as a result they will constitute an increasingly meaningful part of our business.
多年来，我们一直在投资互联网和移动电话背后的骨干基础设施。这些投资现在已经达到了临界规模，因此它们将成为我们业务中越来越有意义的一部分。
Most importantly, we are in the midst of a once-in-a-hundred-year upgrade cycle for data infrastructure. The aging copper infrastructure is no longer able to cope with demands imposed by an increasingly interconnected world. These networks are therefore being replaced by fiber infrastructure, which can support increases in data demand, lower latency and faster broadband speeds. Concurrently, wireless networks are undergoing a transformation to support enhanced connectivity for 5G that is fast coming.
最重要的是，我们正处于数据基础设施百年一遇的升级周期中。日渐老化的铜基础设施已无法应对日益相互关联的世界所带来的需求。因此，这些网络正在被光纤基础设施所取代，这些基础设施可以支持数据需求的增加、更低的延迟和更快的宽带速度。与此同时，无线网络正在经历一场转型，以支持即将到来的5G增强连接。
On a combined basis, these upgrades are expected to require trillions of dollars of capital globally over the next five to seven years. Historically, such investments were funded by telecom operators, but given increasing demands on their capital, they are now seeking funding partners. They are also increasing their reliance on neutral-host, shared infrastructure models to enhance their return on capital.
综合来看，这些升级预计需要全球在未来五到七年内投入数万亿美元的资金。历史上，此类投资由电信运营商提供资金，但鉴于对其资金的需求日益增加，它们现在正在寻找融资伙伴。它们也越来越依赖中立主机、共享基础设施模式，以提高资本回报率。
Our original thesis for investing in data was based on the belief that data infrastructure assets have utility-like characteristics with favorable growth trajectories and play a central role in connecting people, places and objects. The importance of these networks was further reinforced during the pandemic, as access to robust and reliable connectivity became a basic need for performing routine activities such as working from home, remote learning and telemedicine. This was exemplified by our U.K. fiber networks, where average data consumption increased 40% compared to the same period last year.
我们最初投资数据的论点是基于这样一种信念:数据基础设施资产具有类似于效用的特性，具有良好的增长轨迹，并在连接人、地点和物体方面发挥核心作用。在大流行期间，这些网络的重要性进一步得到加强，因为获得强大和可靠的连接成为在家工作、远程学习和远程医疗等日常活动的基本需要。我们的英国光纤网络就是一个很好的例子，其平均数据消耗量比去年同期增长了40%。
As we expand our operations, we now are reaping the benefits of being one of the largest owners of cell tower portfolios globally, with a contracted base of over 180,000 sites in six countries. In addition, we continue to grow our data center business with approximately 70 sites in 14 countries able to serve the scale and latency requirements of a diverse customer base, and we have fixed and wireless networks serving over 2.5 million residential and enterprise customers.
随着我们业务的扩大，我们现在正在收获成为全球最大的手机基站组合所有者之一的好处，在六个国家拥有超过180,000个基站。此外，我们继续发展数据中心业务，在14个国家拥有约70个站点，能够满足不同客户群的规模和延迟需求，我们的固定和无线网络服务超过250万住宅和企业客户。
There are also exciting opportunities embedded within our broader business. Continued adoption of cloud computing is expected to require very substantial incremental data center capacity over the next decade. At the same time, the users and operators of these facilities are focused on achieving their stated carbon reduction targets. We are well positioned to help support these goals. Combining our renewables group activities with our data center offerings could be a game changer for us.
在我们更广泛的业务中也有令人兴奋的机会。云计算的持续采用预计需要非常可观的增量数据中心容量在未来十年。与此同时，这些设施的用户和运营商都专注于实现他们所声明的碳减排目标。我们完全有能力帮助支持这些目标。将我们的可再生能源小组活动与我们的数据中心产品相结合，可能会改变我们的游戏规则。
Doubling Down for a Renewable Future
【为可再生能源的未来加倍努力】
We have been building our renewable power business for the past 25 years, but the technological and manufacturing advances in the solar industry over the past five years may make the next 25 years even more exciting than the past 25. For context, we own approximately $10 billion worth of shares of our renewable partnership, in addition to the fee income that results from our managing renewables investment funds on behalf of our clients. As a result, this is a very meaningful part of our business, and we expect it to become much larger.
在过去的25年里，我们一直在建设我们的可再生能源业务，但过去5年太阳能行业的技术和制造进步可能会使未来25年比过去25年更令人兴奋。作为背景，除了代表客户管理可再生能源投资基金的费用收入外，我们还拥有价值约100亿美元的可再生能源合作伙伴股份。因此，这是我们业务中非常有意义的一部分，我们希望它能变得更大。
Our renewables partnership has a ±$20 billion equity capitalization, and along with other client capital we manage, this backs ±$50 billion of operating assets, a substantial development pipeline, and a depth of expertise across solar, wind and hydro renewable facilities.
我们的$Brookfield再生能源(BEP)$ 拥有约200亿美元的股本，加上我们管理的其他客户资本，这支持了约500亿美元的运营资产，一个庞大的开发管道，以及在太阳能、风能和水力可再生能源设施方面的深度专业知识。
Only five years ago we were not investing in solar because of the high cost of construction, subsidies required to enable projects to earn a reasonable return, and technology issues. Today, solar no longer requires subsidies in many countries and is amongst the lowest-cost sources of power globally. As a result, in a very short time we have added 3,000 megawatts of solar to our operations and have an additional 10,000 megawatts under development. To put this in perspective, solar panel costs are now 25% of what they were seven years ago. At that build cost, solar is very competitive in most markets, and it has the added benefit of being the most renewable.
仅仅在5年前，我们还没有投资太阳能，因为建设成本高，需要补贴才能使项目获得合理的回报，以及技术问题。今天，太阳能在许多国家不再需要补贴，是全球成本最低的能源之一。因此，在很短的时间内，我们已经为我们的业务增加了3000兆瓦的太阳能，并有额外的10000兆瓦正在开发中。从这个角度来看，现在太阳能电池板的成本是七年前的25%。以这样的建造成本，太阳能在大多数市场上都非常有竞争力，而且它还有一个额外的好处，那就是它是最可再生的。
We recently completed the merger of TerraForm Power into Brookfield Renewable on an all-stock basis. TerraForm Power was one of the largest owners of solar globally prior to its bankruptcy in 2016. We acquired approximately 60% of it through a financial restructuring, implemented a new operating plan, and restarted the growth of the business. This has given all TerraForm shareholders, including us, a 35% compound return and over a tripling of value since our involvement with the business began. 我们最近完成了terrform Power与Brookfield Renewable的全股票合并。在2016年破产之前，terrform Power是全球最大的太阳能所有者之一。我们通过财务重组收购了大约60%的股份，实施了新的运营计划，并重新启动了业务增长。这为包括我们在内的所有terrform股东带来了35%的复合回报率，自我们参与该业务以来，其价值增长了两倍以上。
More recently, we agreed to acquire a 1,200-megawatt solar development project in Brazil. This is one of the largest solar development projects in the world, and it will require both our development and energy marketing capabilities to bring the project to completion. We should be able to drive down procurement, installation and operating costs to deliver further value over time, which could make this an exceptional investment.
最近，我们同意在巴西收购一个1200兆瓦的太阳能开发项目。这是世界上最大的太阳能开发项目之一，它将需要我们的开发和能源营销能力使该项目完成。随着时间的推移，我们应该能够降低采购、安装和运营成本，以实现进一步的价值，这可能是一项特殊的投资。
We continue to believe we are in the early innings of significant growth in renewables, and we are doubling down on this. We believe our disciplined cash flow focus and our global operating platform will continue to enable us to generate value from this sector for many years to come. With the growth we foresee, it appears that 10 years from now, solar will likely be the largest sector of our renewables business. That’s quite a change from five years ago, when we weren’t convinced it represented a prudent investment.
我们仍然相信，我们正处于可再生能源显著增长的早期阶段，我们正在加倍努力。我们相信，我们严格的现金流关注和我们的全球运营平台将使我们在未来多年继续从这个领域创造价值。根据我们预测的增长，10年后，太阳能可能会成为我们可再生能源业务中最大的部分。这与五年前相比是一个很大的变化，当时我们不相信这是一项谨慎的投资。
Low Interest Rates Mean Higher Valuations
【低利率意味着更高的估值】
There is almost no debate that a good portion of the last few months’ stock and bond market reflation has been due to the money pumped into the financial system by governments post-Covid, as well as the oil market collapse. What has been lost in this story is the fact that, contemporaneously, central banks around the globe reduced interest rates to zero. It also appears that interest rates will stay at zero for a good while—and barring a change in the macro environment, rates will stay in a low range for the next five to 10 years. Zero to low rates have great influence regarding the valuations of assets and businesses.
几乎没有争议的是，过去几个月股市和债市的通货再膨胀在很大程度上是由于新冠疫情后各国政府向金融体系注入的资金，以及石油市场的崩盘。这个故事忽略了一个事实:与此同时，全球各地的央行都将利率降至零。此外，利率似乎还将在很长一段时间内维持在零水平，除非宏观环境发生变化，否则利率将在未来5到10年保持在较低区间。零利率到低利率对资产和企业的估值有很大影响。
Streams of income that have durability to them will be even more valuable when markets recover, as low interest rates make cash flows from investments such as alternatives even more compelling. Even recently, institutional and retail savers were able to earn ±2% in government bonds, but with all government debt now paying a nil return. Thus, the alternatives of real estate, infrastructure, renewables, private equity and private credit have become even more compelling. It is very likely that long-let property, contracted or regulated infrastructure, long-leased renewables and private credit assets will have higher valuations a year from now than they did a year ago.
当市场复苏时，对他们来说具有持久性的收入流将更有价值，因为低利率使来自另类投资等投资的现金流更有吸引力。甚至在最近，机构和散户储户还能从政府债券中获得±2%的收益，但现在所有政府债券的回报率都为零。因此，房地产、基础设施、可再生能源、私人股本和私人信贷等替代选择变得更加引人注目。一年后，长期租赁的房地产、合同或监管的基础设施、长期租赁的可再生能源和私人信贷资产的估值很有可能高于一年前。
As an example, someone who owns an office building that is fully leased to good-quality tenants with rents locked in for the longer term, generating $50 million of cash flow pre-Covid, could take on and service about $700 million of 4% debt and have $22 million cash flow left over for the equity owners. With interest rates dropping, that mortgage is now at approximately 2.25%, meaning the cash flows to the equity have become ±$35 million. The value of the equity on this property was ±$600 million pre‑Covid—and today it’s likely ±$1 billion.
举个例子，一个人拥有一栋写字楼，完全出租给优质租户，并长期锁定租金，在新冠疫情前产生5000万美元的现金流，可以承担和偿还约7亿美元4%的债务，并有2200万美元的现金流留给股权所有者。随着利率的下降，抵押贷款现在大约是2.25%，这意味着流向股权的现金流已经达到±3500万美元。在新冠肺炎疫情之前，这处房产的股权价值为6亿美元左右，而现在可能是10亿美元左右。
A second example concerns the value of an operating business with stable cash flows. Westinghouse, a company we own, provides engineering and technology services to owners of nuclear power plants. It has had extremely stable revenues through the last six months, and we expect that to continue in the future. The EBITDA was $600 million pre-Covid (and still produces that), and at a 10 times multiple of cash flow, that business was valued at $6 billion last year. With approximately $3 billion of debt, the equity was approximately $3 billion. Now, with the world searching for returns and this business having proven its resilience, a multiple of 12 to 15 times is potentially more reasonable. If so, the equity of the business is now approximately $4 to $6 billion, suggesting an increase of upwards of $3 billion over its value at the start of this year.
第二个例子与具有稳定现金流的经营性企业的价值有关。我们拥有的西屋电气公司(Westinghouse)为核电站所有者提供工程和技术服务。在过去的6个月里，它的收入非常稳定，我们预计这种情况将在未来继续下去。新冠疫情前的息税折旧摊销前利润为6亿美元(目前仍在生产)，按现金流的10倍计算，该业务去年的估值为60亿美元。加上约30亿美元的债务，股本约为30亿美元。如今，随着全世界都在寻找回报，而该业务也证明了自己的韧性，12至15倍的估值可能更为合理。如果是这样的话，该公司的股本现在约为40 - 60亿美元，这意味着其价值比今年年初增加了30亿美元以上。
Of course, the above does not apply for assets where the cash flows are uncertain. Although it is also very possible that many of these assets will also receive higher multiples, it may take time for investors to gain confidence in those income streams so that they can be awarded.
当然，上述情况不适用于现金流不确定的资产。尽管其中许多资产也很有可能获得更高的市盈率，但投资者可能需要时间才能对这些收入流获得信心，从而获得奖励。
Change is Constant but People are People
【变化是永恒的，但人就是人】
The world is always changing, and technology advances have changed the world for the good for centuries. Technology in various forms has become more relevant every year and that will only continue. At the end of the day, however, people are social beings and have, for centuries, increasingly chosen to live with others. We do not think that the current situation will reverse the urbanization trend that has been underway for a long time and has only accelerated over the past 25 years.
世界一直在变化，几个世纪以来，技术的进步一直在向好的方面改变着世界。各种形式的技术每年都变得越来越重要，而且这种趋势只会继续下去。然而，归根结底，人是社会生物，几个世纪以来，越来越多的人选择与他人生活在一起。我们不认为目前的情况会扭转中国城镇化的趋势，这一趋势已经持续了很长时间，而且在过去25年里一直在加速发展。
This has been the trend because people like to be with others, be close to the action, meet new and interesting people, and exchange ideas. Ideas are most often generated face-to-face and spontaneously, not by people communicating from a distance or scheduling appointments. Offices and cities have been designed to ensure that people can meet with others; that offices incubate the culture of a company; and that they are important tools in training and growing younger talent. While we have seen these interactions constrained in the short term, we don’t believe this will alter the long-term trend in any meaningful way.
这已经成为一种趋势，因为人们喜欢和别人在一起，接近行动，认识新的和有趣的人，并交流思想。想法通常是面对面自发产生的，而不是通过远距离交流或安排约会产生的。办公室和城市的设计确保人们可以与其他人见面;办公室孕育着公司文化;它们是培训和培养年轻人才的重要工具。虽然我们看到这些相互作用在短期内受到了限制，但我们不认为这将以任何有意义的方式改变长期趋势。
Some have concluded that video conferencing will allow virtually everyone to work from home and, in fact, work from locations away from the cities. That won’t work in the longer term because humans learn from cues picked up by seeing, hearing and being with others. The internet, phone and video can be enhancing tools, but each only works well when combined with face-to-face communication.
一些人得出结论，视频会议将使几乎每个人都能在家工作，事实上，在远离城市的地方工作。从长远来看，这是行不通的，因为人类会从视觉、听觉和与他人相处中获得的线索中学习。互联网、电话和视频都可以成为增强效果的工具，但它们只有在与面对面交流结合时才能发挥作用。
The same arguments about distanced working were made when the automobile became ubiquitous, the telephone allowed transcontinental conversations, and the internet enabled online communication. None of these has changed the fact that people favor being in cities and in offices. In fact, quite the opposite has always been true in past. These communication tools historically enhanced great cities and offices rather than supplanting them. We think this will play out the same way this time as well.
当汽车变得无处不在，电话允许跨大陆对话，互联网使在线交流成为可能时，关于远程工作的同样的争论也出现了。这些都没有改变人们喜欢住在城市和办公室的事实。事实上，过去的情况恰恰相反。从历史上看，这些通信工具增强了大城市和办公室的功能，而不是取代它们。我们认为这一次也会以同样的方式上演。
We believe video conferencing, like the internet, will allow more people to choose where they work. But contrary to what some say, based on observations of the past, we believe this will only enhance the desirability of large cities—and the offices and other urban spaces in them—and this will increase the concentration of people in major urban centers like New York, London, Shanghai, Sydney, Toronto, São Paulo, Mumbai and others globally. We believe young, entrepreneurial future leaders will continue to gravitate to dynamic energetic cities while using technological advances to augment their experience and productivity.
我们相信视频会议，就像互联网一样，将允许更多的人选择他们的工作地点。但与一些人所说的相反，基于过去的观察，我们认为这只会增强大城市的吸引力——以及其中的办公室和其他城市空间——这将增加人们在主要城市中心的集中度，如纽约、伦敦、上海、悉尼、多伦多、São保罗、孟买和全球其他城市。我们相信，年轻的、具有创业精神的未来领导者将继续被吸引到充满活力的城市，同时利用技术进步来增加他们的经验和生产力。