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那么多销售费用是不是行贿去了?
我怎么收到的是英文版?
Huahai (600521.SS) - First Take: Weakresults, full-year target may be a challenge
News
Huahai reported9M13 revenue of Rmb1.70bn, up 20% yoy, but substantially below our 2013full-year forecast of +36% yoy (Wind consensus +34%). 3Q13 revenue of Rmb470mnwas down 1% yoy, vs +32%/+28% yoy in 1Q/2Q13, despite easy comps in 3Q12. 9M13NPAT of Rmb285mn was up 29% yoy, vs our full-year forecast of +51% yoy(consensus +42%). 3Q13 NPAT of Rmb62mn was up 6% yoy, vs 32%/41% in 1Q/2Q13.
Analysis
We are surprisedto see a sharp slowdown in both the top- and bottom-line. Although managementdid not provide a sales breakdown in the results, by extrapolating from the527bp yoy GP margin improvement to 42.9% in 3Q13, we can infer that the softerrevenue growth is likely due to a growth slowdown in its lower-margin APIbusiness. We await further details from management on the following issues:
(1) Clarificationon what drove the 1% yoy 3Q13 revenue decline despite the already low-base3Q12, which was dragged by a seasonal facility overhaul.
(2) Fundamentalson the sharp slowdown in the API business vs a relatively stable 1H13. We wouldlike to get more color on the competitive landscape of sartan supply/demand andpricing trend.
(3) Whethermanagement is confident it can meet its 2013 revenue target of Rmb2.8bn(implying full-year revenue growth of 39% yoy).
(4) Reasons forthe record-high selling expense ratio of 9.9% in 3Q13 (vs 3.9%/5.5% in1Q/2Q13).
(5) NPATcontribution from Lamotrigine extended-release tablets in 3Q13 and visibilityof new drug approvals both at home and abroad.
Implications
We place ourestimates, target price, and rating under review pending further discussionwith management.
只是差了六个月
题材股因预期受挫而跌,因预期强化而涨。董事会制定年度计划时不可能无原则的吹牛,必竟是要公告的。但是1、ANDA现场检查从2月推到8月,预期二季度获得批文开始创效的新药顺延6个月。2、下半年到期专利仿制药提前6个月的备货期带来的,原料药大放量,并未如期出现,这场雪来得晚一些。这两个6个月使二、三季分別少挣4到6千万。使股价也毫不客气地回到6个月前,4月份的12、3元。
预计如四季度批文如期出现,开始贡献利润,股价将回到15、6元;如今年四季及明年一季沙坦类原料药如期放量,明年四月,6个月之后当14年一季业绩公布时,股价回到18元。