Euronav Is A Key Beneficiary Of The U.S.-China Trade Deal
本文对美国雪球seeking alpha的作者Darren先生的雄文中一些感兴趣的内容进行翻译整理，供大家讨论，如果各位对他的其他文章感兴趣，欢迎大家直接去关注拜读：）
一、美油东运——运距&运量的提升
In 2017, the US exported $127 billion worth of goods to China. If the quotas above are accomplished, it would represent 2020 US to China goods exports increasing 60% over the 2017 baseline. In 2021, that quota further increases to 97% over the 2021 baseline.Almost all the $64 billion in additional goods targeted for 2020 will travel by ship. Almost all the additional $98 billion in goods targeted for 2021 will travel by ship.
2017年，美国对华出口1270亿美元。如果上述指标（指1.15日签署的贸易协定）得以实现，则2020年美国对华出口将较2017年基准水平增长60%。到2021年，这一配额将在2021年基线的基础上进一步增加到97%。到2020年，几乎所有新增的640亿美元的商品都将通过船运运输。几乎所有计划在2021年增加的980亿美元的货物都将通过船运运输。
Add to this that US to China is one of the longest trade routes in the world, roughly twice as long as the average energy product trade route, and you can see shipping demand is going to increase substantially. Effectively, you need two ships to transport the same amount of goods from the US Gulf to China as you would have needed from the average route. Combining a 97% increase in US goods exported to China, with roughly twice the distance being traveled on the US Gulf to China energy route, gives you about a 3x increase in US to China ton-mile demand. That's a lot of extra ton-miles being traveled by ships. That's a lot of extra demand for ships.
此外，美国到中国是世界上最长的贸易路线之一，大约是平均能源产品贸易路线的两倍，你可以看到航运需求将大幅增长。实际上，从美国海湾到中国，你需要两艘船来运输与从平均航线运输相同数量的货物。美国对华出口增长97%，加上从美国海湾到中国能源航线的两倍，美国对中国吨公里的需求增长了3倍。这是很多额外的吨英里正在船舶旅行。这是对船舶的大量额外需求。
It's going to support ship lease rates. Ships such as Panamax and Neo-Panamax dry bulk ships that can transport agricultural or coal products through the Panama Canal. Ships such as LNG carriers and VLGCs that can transport LNG and LPG through the Panama Canal. Oil tankers that can do the same, or even better VLCCs that can't go through the canal and thus must take the even longer route around the Cape of Good Hope.
它将支持船舶租赁费率。巴拿马型船舶和新巴拿马型干散货船可以通过巴拿马运河运输农业或煤炭产品。可以通过巴拿马运河运输液化天然气和液化石油气的船舶，如LNG运输船和大型集装箱船。可以做同样的事的油轮，或者更好的超大型油轮，它们不能通过运河，因此必须绕行好望角更远的路线。
二、脱硫塔的安装
The time to install scrubbers has been running about 50% over original estimates (6 weeks instead of 4).
安装洗涤塔的时间已经超过原来的估计约50%(6周,而不是4)。
IMO 2020 regulations that require either the burning of costly low sulfur fuel oil or the installation of a scrubber to remove this sulfur from high sulfur fuel oil. Newer ships are leaving the fleet to install scrubbers. The scrubber installs however have been taking 50% longer than originally expected and are being delayed by many companies due to high ship lease rates. Thus, the reduction in available shipping tonnage isn't just a Q4 2019 effect. It in fact may last through the rest of 2020.
国际海事组织(IMO) 2020年的规定要求要么燃烧昂贵的低硫燃料油，要么安装一个洗涤器来清除高硫燃料油中的硫。更新的船只离开舰队去安装洗涤器。然而，安装涤气器的时间比最初预计的长了50%，而且由于船租费高，许多公司都推迟了安装时间。因此，可用船舶吨位的减少不仅仅是2019年第四季度的影响。事实上，它可能会持续到2020年。
三、近期运价下跌
Oil tanker lease rates are currently high. $62k on a VLCC or roughly double what they were running the same week last year. Those rates have been falling, but that is due to normal seasonality. The better way to think about rates is vs. the same time last year and on that basis, they are very strong. The seasonal trough, which typically occurs near the end of February due to the Chinese New Year, was about $20k last year. This year it's looking like we are going to easily beat that number. With this year’s season spike not only being more than 2x previous years but also starting earlier and lasting longer in duration.
目前油轮的租用率很高（文章发布于1月23日）。价值62k美元的VLCC，大约是去年同期的两倍。这些比率一直在下降，但这是由于正常的季节性。考虑利率的更好方法是与去年同期相比，在这个基础上，它们非常强劲。由于中国农历新年，季节性波谷通常出现在2月底，去年为2万美元左右。今年看来，我们将轻松突破这一数字（今年过年比较早，波谷按理说会提前出现，但是由于pneumonia的影响，什么时候还很难说），因为今年的旺季高峰不仅是前两年的两倍，而且开始得更早，持续时间更长。
（补：根据推特上Joakim Hannisdahl先生所说,由于2019年四季度运费突然上升涌进的热钱很多，今年的季节性对运费的影响可能会更加强烈，船员们做好准备）
In fact, it appears we are only in the first few innings of an extended shipping upcycle. As shown in the US-China Trade deal section above, that trade deal should be very supportive of almost all shipping rates. Yet the increase in the US to China energy quota is even more notable than the overall picture, with $6.9 billion in US to China energy exports in 2017 targeted to increase to a whopping $40.8 billion by 2021 (a $33.9 billion or 490% increase). A 490% increase in the volume of oil transported on a route that is 2x the average distance, should do wonders for Euronav’s ship demand and lease rates. That is not to imply it’s an increase in overall worldwide energy being shipped, rather it’s a switch from a Middle East to China or Australia to China route to a US to China route. However, because that route is so much longer, roughly twice as many ships need to be used to support it.
事实上，我们似乎只是在一个漫长的航运上升周期的前几局。如上面的美中贸易协议部分所示，该贸易协议应该会对几乎所有的运价起到很大的支持作用。然而，美国对华能源配额的增加甚至比整体情况更引人注目，2017年美国对华能源出口为69亿美元，目标是到2021年增至408亿美元(339亿美元，增长490%)。在两倍于平均航程的航线上，石油运输量增加了490%，这应该会对泛欧航空公司的船舶需求和租赁费率产生奇迹般的影响。这并不意味着全球能源运输总量的增加，而是从中东到中国、从澳大利亚到中国、从美国到中国的转变。然而，由于这条路线要长得多，大约需要两倍的船只来支持它。
While as stated we are in the seasonally weak period, and rates will likely continue to fall for the next week or two, I see them recovering in March and April and enjoying ongoing support from thereon. Best guess at levels roughly 2x what they were during comparable times in 2019.
虽然如前所述，我们正处于季节性疲软时期，利率很可能在未来一两个星期内继续下降，但我认为，利率将在3月和4月恢复，并享受持续的支持。最好的估计是，这一水平是2019年可比时期的两倍左右。
四、降速
Slow steaming of ships without scrubbers. The spreads between compliant and non-compliant fuels are running higher than expected. Low sulfur fuel oil currently runs about $280 more per ton than high sulfur fuel oil. This adds up to about an extra $12k per day in cost for a fully-laden VLCC without a scrubber. If this VLCC chooses to slow steam however they save a significant amount of that fuel and thus reduce the impact of this extra cost. Doing so however also reduces ship availability. If they travel slower, they will also take longer to make each voyage. So, there is a trade-off between extra fuel cost and extra lease days ship contracting firms need to consider. The net result is a reduction in ship availability and thus higher lease rates, but how much reduction in ship availability and climb in lease rates is difficult to say. We know rates will likely be supported by slow steaming, but not how much.
没有洗涤器的船的缓慢航行。符合标准和不符合标准的燃料之间的差距比预期的要大。目前，低硫燃料油的价格比高硫燃料油每吨高出约280美元（现在220美元左右）。这意味着，对于一个没有洗涤器的满载VLCC来说，每天要多花费12k美元。如果VLCC选择慢蒸汽，然而，他们节省了大量的燃料，从而减少了这一额外成本的影响。但是，这样做也会降低船只的可用性。如果他们走得慢一些，他们每次航行的时间也会更长。因此，在额外的燃料成本和额外的租期之间，船舶承包公司需要权衡。最终的结果是船的可用性降低，从而导致更高的租用率，但是船的可用性降低多少，租用率上升多少，就很难说了。我们知道，运费可能会受到慢速航行的支撑，但不会有多少支撑。
五、老船报废
Scrapping is another supporting factor. Management teams will hold off on scrapping a ship as long as they can when rates are as high as they are currently running. However, special surveys also cost a lot of money and are coming due on 22.5-year-old ships which aren't scrubber-equipped. The economics of paying for these special survey and scrubber install costs remain prohibitive unless one is 100% certain current high lease rates will continue for the next 5 years. No one can ever be 100% certain about such things, thus, most management teams will still choose to scrap ships which are over 22.5 years old. According to James Catlin in, "Crude Tanker Supply Side Outlook Best In Decades," there are currently 167 VLCCs "representing well over 20% of the fleet, old enough to be considered retirement [scrapping] candidates." This compares very favorably to only an 8% orderbook.
报废是另一个支持因素。管理团队将尽可能地拖延报废一艘船的时间，因为目前的运价已经很高了。然而，特殊的检修也花费了大量的钱，而且是在22.5年历史的船只上进行的，这些船只没有清洁设备。支付这些特别检修和洗涤器安装费用的经济成本仍然令人望而却步，除非一个人100%确定目前的高租赁费率将继续在未来5年。没有人能百分百确定这些事情，因此，大多数管理团队仍然会选择报废22.5年以上的船只。詹姆斯·卡特林在《原油油轮供应方展望:几十年来最好的时期》一书中说，目前有167艘超大型油轮“代表了超过20%的船队，已经到了可以考虑退休[报废]的年龄”。这比只有8%的订货单要便宜得多。
小标题由本人自拟，侵删，非原创。