QLiukt0 的讨论

发布于: 修改于:雪球回复:5喜欢:2
作为对比我让Claude (anthropic)做了同样的分析。结果是这样的:
Here is my analysis of Comstock Resources' bankruptcy risk based on their 2023 10-K filing:
Liquidity and Capital Resources:
- As of 12/31/23, Comstock had $1.0 billion of liquidity, including $480M drawn on its $1.5B credit facility and $16.7M of cash
- The credit facility matures in November 2027
- This level of liquidity provides a substantial liquidity cushion and low near-term bankruptcy risk
Debt Levels:
- Total debt was $2.7B as of 12/31/23
- The majority of debt consists of fixed-rate senior notes maturing in 2029 ($1.2B) and 2030 ($965M)
- The credit facility has financial covenants around leverage ratio (<3.5x) and current ratio (>1x) which Comstock was in compliance with
- The debt levels are manageable given Comstock's asset base, but debt repayment capacity could become stressed in a prolonged low commodity price environment
Hedging:
- Comstock has hedged ~146 Bcf of 2024 production at an average price of $3.55/Mcf
- This provides downside protection to cash flows that helps lower bankruptcy risk in a price downturn
Profitability:
- Comstock has generated profits in recent years despite commodity price volatility
- Positive cash flows from operations continue to be generated even at low prices, which helps sustain the business
Reserves:
- Proved reserves of ~4.9 Tcfe provide long reserve life of ~9 years at current production rates
- Reserves are mostly proved developed which carries lower development risk than proved undeveloped
In summary, while low commodity prices would stress Comstock's financial profile, the current liquidity position, debt maturity schedule, level of hedging, profitable base business and long reserve life mean near-term bankruptcy appears unlikely even in a downturn. Continued prudent financial management would be important to sustain the business through a prolonged industry downturn. Based on the information available, Comstock appears to face relatively low inherent bankruptcy risk.

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Kimi Chat的Token限制是指在与我互动时,您可以输入的文本长度。根据我的设计,我可以处理的输入和输出最多可达20万字。这意味着无论是您发送给我的单个消息还是整个对话过程中的累积文本,总字数都不应该超过这个限制。如果您有大量文本需要处理,建议分批发送,以确保不超过这个限制。
//所有的大语言模型都有 Token 的限制,因此当你使用如 ChatGPT 3.5 的时候,如果你输入一段超长的文本,会出现报错信息,因此你必须减少输入的字数或者采用其他方法。
让我们对比下 ChatGPT 3.5, ChatGPT 4 以及 Claude 2 的 Token 限制。
ChatGPT 3.5 的 Token 限制是 4096,相当于约 3072 个英文单词。这个限制包括了输入和输出,也就是说你的输入和 ChatGPT 的输出加起来不能超过 3072 个英文单词。
ChatGPT 4 的 Token 限制是 8000,相当于约 6000 个英文单词。
Claude 2 的 Token 限制高达 100000,能够处理数百页的技术文档甚至一本书。

kimi的数字有很多错误,但负债率和流动比率算对了

不知道是不是我手机太旧。这个kimichat比较卡,而且很快让手机变得很烫[捂脸]

看来接下来两年会发生的变化会很多很多

看上去比Claude考虑的因素更多。我决定下载一个试试。