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是的，sub从第一次招股书的1.1m涨到了1.7m。今天听了roth capital的presentation感觉在sand bag未来两年的rev growth。应该可以很轻松的做到给出的guidance。此外Barkeat反响很好，NPS Score在low 70. 还帮忙转化了一些inactive membership，感觉cross sell提升了用户粘度。
2022年FY：2021年4月1日开始的财年应该可以做到1.7m*25*12=510m core biz. 算上AOB(20%)，应该可以做到510*1.2=612m。假定new sub抵消churn。实际情况应该会好很多。此外AOB增长速度可能比我的假设搞上不少。
Cost of goods sold consists of the cost of third-party brand and private brand products sold to customers, inventory freight, shipping supply costs, inventory shrinkage costs, and inventory valuation adjustments, offset by reductions for promotions and percentage or volume rebates offered by our vendors, which may depend on reaching minimum purchase thresholds. Generally, amounts received from vendors are considered a reduction of the carrying value of inventory and are ultimately reflected as a reduction of cost of goods sold（Chewy). Cost of Revenues—Cost of revenues includes the purchase price of inventory sold, inbound freight costs associated with inventory, shipping supply costs, and inventory shrinkage costs. (Bark)。 Chewy多加入了一个第三方品牌送货成本。考虑到两家公司的差异性，其实区别不大。
1.1mm是上财年度末（2019 Q1）2020 Q1是1.2mm，Q3是1.45mm，最新的预期Q4是1.7mm。貌似sub在covid前出现滞涨现象，不过最近势头保持的不错。
成长潜力未来两三年还是有2倍增长。估值修复空间要大打折扣。
考虑到SPAC股票的不确定性：1. 上市后的现有投资者套现 2. warrants和incentives对股东的额外dilution; 偶的回报期望值也下调不少。按照CHEWY的发展轨迹，规模做大后供应链这块应该会更有效率。SG&A有可能有提升空间。