$Turning Point医疗(TPTX)$ 在推特上看到Biotech2k大神对TPTX的估值，蛮不错的，搬运过来。对此有兴趣的人可以去推特赶猪Biotech2k。他有25年的交易历史，无论是对交易还是对Biotech都有许多蛮好的见解。

-----------正文分割线------------

Repotrectinib:

ROS - $498 million * 2 for phase 2 = $996 billion value

NTRK - $298 million * 2 for phase 2 = $596 million value

KRAS - $1 billion * 10% for early phase 1 = $100 million value

TPX-0022:

NSCLC - $593 million * 1 for early phase 1 = $593 million value

Gastric - $60 million * 1 for early phase 1 = $60 million value

TPX-0046:

NSCLC - $171 million * .5% for early phase 1 = $85.5 million value

Thyroid - $97 million * .5% for early phase 1 = $48.5 million value

TPX-0131 :

NSCLC - $380 million * 10% for preclinical = $38 million value

Cash $1.1 billion

Total Value = $3.617 billion @ 49,407,966 Shares Outstanding = $73.20 Current Value

---------结束分割线------------------

具体的估值方法如下。先以Repotrectinib为例：

Repotrectinib

ROS1+ NSCLC

Estimates 190,000 NSCLC patients in the US

ROS1+ is about 1% to 3% of them = 2,850

Give them 50% market share = 1,425

@ $350,000 price = $498 million

同样是ROS1和NTRK抑制剂的Entrectinib目前网上的价格是大约23,000欧元（90x200mg）。而正常剂量是每天600mg。所以一个患者每月的费用正好是23,000欧元。那么换算成美元，一年的费用是23,000 x 1.2 x 12 = 331,200 美元。和作者估计的35万美元差不多。

NTRK+ Solid Tumors

Estimated 710,000 cancer can have TRK mutations

Estimate about .3% will have a TRK mutation = 2,130

Give them 40% market share = 852

@ $350,000 price = $298 million

KRAS combination NSCLC:

Estimated 190,000 patients in the US

KRAS G12C mutation accounts for 14% of all NSCLC = 26,600

@ 20% market share = 5,320

@ $200,000 price = $1 billion

这是对Repotrectinib的最高销售额的估计。

其它管线的估值细节如下：

TPX-0022

NSCLC:

Estimates 190,000 NSCLC patients in US

3-4% are MET exon 14 = 6,650

1-2% are MET amplified = 2,850

@ 25% market share = 2,375

@ $250,000 price = $593 million

Gastric Cancer

Estimates 15,000 patients in the US

3-5% are MET amplified = 600

@ 40% market share = 240

@ $250,000 price = $60 million

TPX-0046:

NSCLC:

Estimates 190,000 NSCLC patients in US

1-2% are RET positive = 2,850

Give them 30% market share = 855

@ $200,000 price = $171 million

Thyroid Cancer

Estimates 13,000 patients in the US

10% - 20% with RET mutations = 1,950

@ 25% market share = 487

@ $200,000 price = $97 million

TPX-0131

Estimated 190,000 NSCLC patient in US

3-5% are ALK mutations = 7,600

Give them 25% market share = 1,900

@ $200,000 price = $380 million

Total Sales and Royalties = $3.097 billion

* 8 P/S = $24.7 billion Market Cap @ 49,154,551 Shares Outstanding = $502.49 Peak Value

按照这个估值，股价的最高值是502usd.