“我有一个好消息告诉这些非专业人士:一般投资者并不需要那些技能。总体而言，美国公司 长期以来都表现很好，并且还会欣欣向荣(当然一定会有起起伏伏)。20 世纪的一百年里， 道琼斯指数从 66 点涨到了 11,497 点，分红不断提高。21 世纪一样会有巨额的回报。非专 业投资者的目标不应该是挑出优胜企业——他和他的“帮手”都做不到，而是应该配置一个 夸行业的组合，整体而言其回报必定不错。一个低费率的标普 500 指数基金就可以实现这个 目标。
以上就是非专业投资者所需的“做什么”。“何时做”也同样重要。主要的风险是，胆小投资 者的或者投资新手可能刚好在市场剧烈波动前入场，并且在出现浮亏时幻想破灭。(记住巴 顿·比格斯11的话:“牛市就像性爱一样，在结束之前达到高潮。”)解决时间问题的办法是， 在一个较长的时间内逐步买入，并且无论利空满天还是股价新高都不卖出。遵守这些规则， “盲投”并且保持多元组合和低费率的投资者一定会获得满意的回报。实际上，认识到自身 不足的简单投资者长期将会战胜那些哪怕只是忽略了一个弱点的专业投资者。”
I have good news for these non-professionals: The typical investor doesn’t need this skill. In aggregate, American business has done wonderfully over time and will continue to do so (though, most assuredly, in unpredictable fits and starts). In the 20th Century, the Dow Jones Industrials index advanced from 66 to 11,497, paying a rising stream of dividends to boot. The 21st Century will witness further gains, almost certain to be substantial. The goal of the non-professional should not be to pick winners – neither he nor his “helpers” can do that – but should rather be to own a cross-section of businesses that in aggregate are bound to do well. A low-cost S&P 500 index fund will achieve this goal.
That’s the “what” of investing for the non-professional. The “when” is also important. The main danger is that the timid or beginning investor will enter the market at a time of extreme exuberance and then become disillusioned when paper losses occur. (Remember the late Barton Biggs’ observation: “A bull market is like sex. It feels best just before it ends.”) The antidote to that kind of mistiming is for an investor to accumulate shares over a long period and never to sell when the news is bad and stocks are well off their highs. Following those rules, the “know-nothing” investor who both diversifies and keeps his costs minimal is virtually certain to get satisfactory results. Indeed, the unsophisticated investor who is realistic about his shortcomings is likely to obtain better long term results than the knowledgeable professional who is blind to even a single weakness.
——2014 致股东信