西蒙斯说

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James Harris Simons此人不做详细介绍了,他在投资界与科学界的名气都太大了。本文集选了他的一些「名言」,透过这些语句中我们可以感受到他的一些思维方式。翻译水平有限,仅做参考(括号内是我自己的理解):

“ One can predict the course of a comet more easily than one can predict the course of Citigroup's stock ”

人们预测彗星的走势比预测花旗集团股价走势容易得多。 (别预测股价走势)

“ The attractiveness, of course, is that you can make more money successfully predicting a stock than you can a comet ”

当然,这件事的吸引力在于,准确地预测花旗集团的股票走势会比预测彗星赚到更多的钱。 (说了也白说,人性使然)

“ Patterns of price movement are not random. However, they're close enough to random… ”

价格图形的运行不是随机的,然而,它们足够接近随机。 (价格随机运动中存在一些非随机的「动向」)

“ We search through historical data looking for anomalous patterns that we would not expect to occur at random ”

寻找异常,而不是随机。 (价格走势大多数时间是随机的,但真正有意义的是某些「异常」,而不是大多数时间的随机运动)

“ Past performance is the best predictor of success ”

过去的优秀表现可以预期未来的成功。 (优秀的历史表现中一定有内在逻辑,正是这种逻辑可以预期未来成功)

“ A good atmosphere and smart people can accomplish a lot ”

良好的氛围与一群聪明的人在一起能够干成很多事。

“ The system is always leaking, and we keep having to add water to keep it ahead of the game

这个系统总是在漏水,所以我们不断加水以保持这个游戏继续。 (我猜这句话是在说金融系统)

“ It's supply and demand. If gold is discovered, then it gets harder to make money mining gold because everyone's competing with you

供需关系就是:如果众人发现了黄金,然后再去开采就比较困难了,因为所有人都成为了你的竞争对手。 (「真相」大白于天下就意味着没有机会了)

“ In this business, it's easy to confuse luck with brains ”

这个行当,很容易混淆什么是运气什么是智慧。 (投资界,有太多人把运气当做能力)

“ We don't hire people from business schools. We don't hire people from Wall Street. We hire people who have done good science ”

我们从不雇用商学院毕业的人,我们也不雇用来自华尔街的人。我们重用在科学方面有才能的人。 (商学背景的人太惟利是图,华尔街的人太投机,那些对自然规律有深刻理解的人才会在投资上有所作为)

“ Luck, is largely responsible for my reputation for genius

我的「天才」的美誉主要来自于运气。 (做事在人,成事在天。不必过分强调个人能力的作用)

“ I don't walk into the office in the morning and say, 'Am I smart today?' I walk in and wonder, 'Am I lucky today? ”

每天走进办公室之前,我不会自问:「我今天聪明吗?」,而是带着疑虑走进办公室:「我今天会走运吗?」。

“ I felt so powerless about being fired. I thought, 'They can't fire you if you're chairman ”

如果被解雇,你一定会感到很无助。但是,如果你是老板,他们就没法解雇你了。 (不想做将军的士兵,不是好士兵)

“ We don't override the models ”

我们不过度干预模型。 (计算机模型就是人的逻辑。逻辑需要在投入市场之前做好充分推演,一旦运行起来要给予足够的时间去验证)

“ We are not a teaching organization. We are a research organization. We hire people to make mathematical models of the markets in which we invest ”

我们不是一个教育机构。我们是研究机构。我们雇用人设计数学模型运用在我们投资领域里。 (西蒙斯创立的「文艺复兴科技」Renaissance Technologies用数量化模型进行投资)

“ Those kinds of times… when everyone is running around like a chicken with its head cut off, that's pretty good for us… ”

大众恐慌对我们来说是好事。 (在美国市场进行投资,这里聚集了全世界最顶尖的投资人。正常的(牛市)市场里难分胜负。只有当这些人脑子里充满了恐惧和骚乱的时候,才是对我们最有利的时候。孙子曰:「善战者,先为己之不可胜,以待敌之可胜。」有趣的是,每隔一些年,就会有一次这样的机会,而且每一次都差不多——人性亘古不变)

“ We have three criteria: If it's publicly traded, liquid and amenable to modeling, we trade it ”

我们有三个交易标准:可供公开市场交易、流动性好、易于建模。

“ We may have bad years, we may have a terrible year sometimes. But the principles we've discovered are valid ”

我们有过不好的年份,有时更糟。但我们的原则始终有效。

“ Great people. Great infrastructure. Open environment. Get everyone compensated roughly based on the overall performance ”

伟大的人民,伟大的基础设施,开放的环境,这些因素让所有人都受益。