学习笔记第二弹 Jim Rogers Talks Markets

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中国财富大致有30万亿美元左右,仅是美国的三分之一。而近80%为住房,其他金融资产20%,而美国的情况差不多是反之。(易宪容的文章,actually此数据存疑)


Take your emotions to the football game, take your emotions to the bar, do not take your emotions to the investment world because you are going to get destroyed.


We are in a very, very artificial period. It stye first time in recorded history that you have all the major central banks, Japan, U.K., Europe and America printing staggering amounts of money. The people getting that money are very happy. But it is artificial, if you look out the window, I am sure you are going to see a rising tide of liquidity. When it ends, and it will end, we are going to have a big, big, problem.流动性泛滥的日子终会过去,那个时候是以什么样的形式到来的?到来之后会带来什么样的损失,我们又该做什么?


现在的金融市场充满了竞争和过高的杠杆(迟早会带来集体灾难的杠杆),无数优秀但不知道自己想做什么的人都冲进了这个市场,每年仅美国就有超过20万的MBA毕业。在未来的十年二十年进入金融市场和投资会比之前的20、30年困难很多。


If This Happens, I Will Buy A Lot More Gold
Gold has not had a 50 percent correction in many, many years. That is not normal. If gold goes down 50 percent, which would be under 1,000 dollars an ounce, that is not a prediction, I am just saying if it happens, which would be normal, I will buy a lot more gold.


Emerging Markets: Look At Iran, African Countries & Kazakhstan
Places that you can look now (new emerging markets to invest in) are Iran, it will probably be terrific eventually, some of the African countries, Kazakhstan is opening. These are not big markets and they are just starting to open up and change.
伊朗、哈萨克斯坦、一些非洲国家、包括之前提到的越南,北朝,有开放后的发展机会。


One Of The Great Growth Industries For The Next Decade
The Chinese tourism will be one of the great growth industries in the next decade or two. There`s a billion and 300 million Chinese who have not been able to travel for centuries. Now they can and they are encouraged to.



 I boughy some Russian government bonds in Rubles. The Ruble collapsed and interest rates are very, very high in Russia right now.可能可以迎来双击。



当坏消息还是不断出现,而商品的价格不再下跌的时候,就是底了。


Gold has not had a 50 percent correction in many, many years. That is unusual because most things have 50 percent corrections every 3, 4 or 5 years. It is just the way markets work. But Gold has not.还是有很多人认为黄金是圣洁的,不会贬值的。如果有一些人放弃了这些想法,黄金价格下跌破了1000美元,那么这个时候会是入场的好时机。
Gold will turn into a bubble eventually and when it turns into a bubble; I hope I am smart enough to sell it. On the other hand, on the downside, I am not quite sure that I can think of anything that can cause me to sell my gold. If nothing else it will be for my children someday.


What Real Assets To Own In Times Of Turmoil
Real assets in times of turmoil, especially productive real assets such as farmland are very, very useful and one of the ways history shows that you can protect yourself.
And gold and silver coins have the attraction that they are easier to transport and they are internationally recognizable. It is hard to transport your farm if you have to get out of your country.
林地和金银是在危机中最好的储存。

Jim Rogers explains that 50 percent corrections are normal in markets. If Gold were to correct 50 percent, it would go to 960 dollars per ounce.



Is Oil going to stay down forever? No.
Remember, the known reserves around the world are in decline, except for fracking.



The IMF Has Very Rarely Been Right About Anything
If you go back and look at the World Bank and the IMF, they have never or very rarely been right about anything other than spending billions and billions of dollars and coming up with great lifestyles for the bureaucrats that have the jobs.




旅游、医疗


Crude Oil is probably making a bottom but if the global economy goes into recession and Crude Oil goes to 20 dollars a barrel we should buy all we that we can. 石油价格长期看不存在长期保持低价的基本面。


Daily Routine: Reading the News
My homepage is the Financial Times and that is where I see immediately what is happening in the world. I read newspapers from around the world.
Investing: Reading News From More Than One Source
You have to learn to read news from more than one source because every source has its own prejudices and biases and so you have to read several sources in order to put together what is really happening in the world. This is my passion, this is what I love.获取信息:要多元,FT不错。



Jim Rogers explains why it does not matter if China is growing at 7 percent or at any other number.罗杰斯非常力挺中国啊,当年和索罗斯一起做空东南亚香港的老头,为什么在邪教党国的宣传里像是杀人不见血的魔头。呵呵


全世界都没有农民了,平均年龄都在50以上。30年粮食的价格没有变化了,现在每年美国学PR的人都比学农业的人多。





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