By Sam Whelan
11/10/2022
China is back at work after its Golden Week holiday, but carrier-blanked sailings have been “ineffective” at stopping the rapid decline in freight rates.
According to Linerlytica, the national holiday provided little respite for sliding freight and charter rates, with the SCFI and CCFI indices “set to resume their weekly declines” this week.
The analyst said: “Carriers are still unwilling to take out capacity in any serious way, while easing port congestion has negated much of the initial capacity reductions. Global port congestion has dropped to 10.5%, the lowest level in 10 months, from a peak of 15% in March.”
Linerlytica analyst HJ Tan told The Loadstar: “Blanked sailings so far have been completely ineffective in stopping the rate slide. What is needed is permanent capacity withdrawals.”
For example, he said, based on Linerlytica calculations, capacity cuts planned so far on the US west coast account for less than 7% of total trade capacity, and on US east coast lanes the cuts are less than 2%, as the services withdrawn were “already running at less than full strength anyway, and part of the capacity withdrawn will be returned to fill gaps in the remaining services”.
Mr Tan added: “The smaller carriers are retaining transpacific services through October, including CU Lines, Transfar, BAL, and Sea-Lead. Meanwhile, Wan Hai will soon place its 13,200 teu ships on the US west coast lane by the end of October, effectively negating any impact of the withdrawal of two irregular transpacific services.
“The opportunity cost of withdrawing capacity is too high for the carriers today, unlike the situation in 2016 or 2020 when charter rates were low and there was little orderbook pressure.”
Indeed, Linerlytica said, the rapidly deteriorating supply-demand outlook has not stopped carriers from pushing ahead with capacity expansion plans, with Maersk and MSC both confirming further orders for new tonnage last week, “propelling the containership orderbook to a new record high of 7.44m teu.”
作者：Sam Whelan，2022年10月11日
黄金周假期过后，中国又开始工作了，但由于航空公司的停航“效率低下”，货运费率停止了快速下降。
据Linerlytica称，由于本周SCFI和CCFI指数“将恢复每周下跌”，国庆假期几乎没有延迟运费和租船费的下滑。
该分析师表示：“运营商仍不愿意以任何严肃的方式削减运力，而缓解港口拥堵抵消了大部分初始运力削减。全球港口拥堵率已从3月份的峰值15%降至10.5%，为10个月来的最低水平。”
Linerlytica分析师HJ Tan告诉《Loadstar》：“到目前为止，停航对于阻止运价下滑完全无效。需要的是永久性的运力撤回。”
例如，他说，根据Linerlytica的计算，到目前为止，计划在美国西海岸削减的容量占总贸易容量的比例还不到7%，而在美国东海岸航道，削减的容量还不到2%，因为撤回的服务“已经不到满负荷运行，而撤回的部分容量将被退还，以填补剩余服务的缺口”。
谭先生补充道：“小型航空公司将保留跨太平洋航线至10月，包括CU Lines、Transfar、BAL和Sea Lead。与此同时，万海航空公司很快将在10月底前将其13200标准箱的船只停靠在美国西海岸航线上，这实际上抵消了两条非常规跨太平洋航线的退出所带来的任何影响。
“与2016年或2020年租船费率低、订单压力小的情况不同，如今的运营商退出能力的机会成本太高。”
事实上，Linerlytica表示，快速恶化的供需前景并未阻止航空公司推进产能扩张计划，马士基和摩根士丹利资本均于上周确认了新吨位的进一步订单，“推动集装箱船订单达到744万标箱的创纪录新高。”
$东方海外国际(00316)$ $中远海控(01919)$ $中远海控(SH601919)$