Hapag-Lloyd一季度电话会议重点摘录：The implied message of Hapag-Lloyd quarterly release and conference call was: The container boom peaked in the first quarter; it’s downhill from here. Spot rates are falling. Goods demand is falling. “There have been signs that the market has passed its peak [in Q2 2022],” acknowledged CEO Rolf Habben Jansen in the earnings release.The second quarter is shaping up better than expected but “should be somewhere slightly south of Q1,” said CFO Mark Frese during the call. In Q3 and Q4, Hapag-Lloyd sees things going a lot more than “slightly south.” Its guidance implies a 50% drop in second-half earnings versus the first half.
这个地方就是集运的盈利峰值区域， 下半年盈利可能会同比减少50%
Asked about this possibility, the Hapag-Lloyd CFO answered: “Could we see a rebound out of China after China opens and everything is normal? Yes and no. Yes, when China reopens again there will be some rebound. But overall, we have to accept that demand is going down over time.” In other words, falling demand could offset some of the gains from China’s reopening and peak season.
解封后会造成美国港口承压，但是不会扭转运费下滑
Then, in 2023, a big wave of container-ship newbuilds begins to hit the water. “Newbuild ordering activity continued in Q1, pushing the orderbook to fleet ratio to around 25%. We will see what the consequences in the future will be of that. Demand growth is expected to slow down to more sustainable levels while the capacity influx will increase in 2023
一句话，悲观预期，和之前马士基发表的观点差不多。满仓单吊的兄弟，慌不慌？