【Reelshort资本融资猜测】
中文在线股价这几天对Reelshort的排名、下载量和收入数据已经脱敏了，雪球有关这些数据的帖子也少见了，这些数据在上月冲顶后开始回落，各项排名指标稳定在10-70名这样一个不同水平，双端收入维持在每日18万美元左右。然而中文在线股价并没有随之下跌，在出狱后反而表现格外强势，因为上述数据表示Reelshort已经打通商业模式，股价翻倍是对商业模式成功这个逻辑的重估兑现，数据波动已经对新估值不会有大的影响了。目前股价隐隐约约正按着资本融资这条暗线逻辑在走趋势，来兑现新的更大的逻辑。资本融资是改变估值或者引爆估值的唯一时间还不确定的确定性重磅因素。
关于资本融资，从公司公开信息可以看出一些线索和端倪：公司一直在精心安排资本融资。首先非常佩服中文在线管理层对短剧业务的精准战略定位和精细战术安排，其用意深远，剑指上市融资。公司把子公司枫叶互动设在加利福尼亚，其目的就是规避国内审查，面向美国和世界，把枫叶互动打造成一家美国公司（尽管具有中国基因），这种安排淡化了中国色彩，把公司推到广阔的世界舞台去竞争，占据了国际化站位优势。审查就决定了国内短剧公司的天花板，从内容到速度就会拉开几个身位，短剧行业定位国内是出不了世界级公司的。即使这种环境，短剧在中国依然是年底火爆拥挤赛道。定位海外，就摆脱了审查限制（［经济学人］杂志的总结语一语点破本质，把这称作Reelshort的优势和卖点），才能拥抱其他70亿人的外面的世界和市场，才具有风靡“世界”的可能，TikTok 是因为风靡世界才跻身世界互联网巨头的。国内和出海定位格局和境界差距之大，这是Reelshort能够取得商业成功的决定性一步，也是坚信Reelshort能成为世界级互联网公司的底部逻辑和持股信仰。从运作方式上，枫叶互动也放弃了多数中国公司采用的雇佣东欧白人演员的廉价模式（成本低，但语言差），而是直接和美国工作室签约，据说签约了四个拍摄团队，制作完全地道的美国口味短剧（IP来自母公司），这样就保证了一周一剧，作品制作精美，讲究短剧质量，画面场景颇有美国片的味道，和那些粗制滥造的国内短剧拉开了差距，短剧属地化制作是Reelshort融入美国、融入世界的另一步好棋。引领世界的是美国文化，横扫世界的是美国大片，中国内容和美国短剧的完美结合完全可能产生世界级的现象级娱乐消费产品，这是强化持股信仰的第二个逻辑。第三，招聘美国管理团队，尽管多数为美籍华人（看过一篇大概2020年对总经理贾毅的专访，对中文在线选择的管理层充分认可和充满信心），他们熟稔短剧行业、兼具中西方文化背景、熟悉美国资本市场，完全实行国际化运营。从上述措施可以看出中文在线完全按照美国上市辅导要求在精心布局。走向美国资本市场，这是坚信股价会凤凰涅磐和坚定持股的精神力量和最大的逻辑。
我们也能明确判断出引进的投资人肯定不是中国资本或中国公司，更不可能是Tiktok。公司已经明确要在资本市场融资，而且不考虑财务投资，只考虑产业资本，公司的表态还是很有底气、很硬气的、很从容的，这说明公司现在确实打通了商业模式，资金状况良性循环，完全不缺钱，融资的目的不是圈钱，不像绝大多数互联网公司资金饥渴需要不断借钱续命，而是希望通过产业资本做强做大主业，志存高远。公司最有魄力的决策是放弃决策权，名义上从控股人变成了财务投资人（这个决策并不影响公司的经济权益），这一举措不仅仅是给管理层充分授权、放手经营，更深层的含义是为了资本融资的考虑。目前中美关系紧张，美国政府对中国公司充满敌意，尤其是互联网公司，Tiktok就是现成的例子，由于控股股东是中国公司，被认定受政府控制，曾经打算肢解Tiktok，逼迫把股权转让给美国公司，实质就是对中国互联网巨头公司进行强买。Tiktok被迫采取了一系列中性措施，把总部搬到新加坡，股东中引进美国华尔街资本，算是躲过了一劫。所以中文在线放弃控股权就是提前减少政治色彩，为公司长远发展做的一个重大安排，意在减少业务发展阻力、减少上市融资阻力，所以将来的投资人一定不会是中国公司，更不可能是抖音。从这个安排可以看出公司上市融资的决心已昭然若揭。
公司前瞻性地采取了上述一系列规避措施，尽量淡化中国元素，避免文化输出的嫌疑，避免遭到美国封杀。尽管如此，经济学人杂志昨天还是罕见地发表了一篇针对Reelshort的专题文章：《ReelShort is the latest Chinese export to conquer America》【Reelshort是中国征服美国的最新输出】。由此可见中文在线未雨绸缪，还是非常有预见性的。而被经济学人点名评头论足还是出乎我的意料的，先不说影响如何，这个免费广告的效果可是世界级的。经济学人是和【财富Fortune】、【商业周刊Business Week】、【福布斯Forbes】（就举这几个吧）齐名的世界顶级商业刊物，是世界500强公司老板们桌上必备刊物。如果不是世界现象级的事物是纳入不了它的法眼的，连挨骂的机会都没有。我个人认为经济学人的文章简直就是在向世界500强公司老板们推介Reelshort。
再说说股价吧，本来我完全就是按自己的认知和逻辑持股，忽略股价波动的，买入以后只是三次大幅度、大力度的做T，仓位和价格满意后就再也不动了。所以只是谈谈对中文在线走势的看法。我认为中文在线现在的定位是一个具有高度确定性的中盘互联网成长股，股价具有强支撑，只有做多的可能性，不存在做空的因素。原因：短剧行业迎来了黄金发展期，已经成为拥挤赛道，Reelshort是短剧的世界引领者，商业模式非常成功，上市融资已经不是箭在弦上，不得不发，而是何时要发的问题。互联网头部公司，尤其是世界现象级产品公司一旦上市，估值都是令人瞠目结舌的。中国股市基本没有这样的机会，这样高度确定的纳斯达克原始股机会确实值得一搏。这个逻辑已经越来越清晰，先知先觉、认知到位的资金应该不会主动放弃筹码，放过这个千载难逢的机会吧。一个朦胧的成长为世界互联网头部公司、一个可能拥有美国纳斯达克公司原始股的预期摆在眼前，中文在线的股价大概率只能涨不停、不停涨地走趋势吧，等待融资消息加速拉升、估值到位。
【ReelShort is the latest Chinese export to conquer America】
A producer of soapy micro-series is a surprise hit
A show called “Never Divorce a Secret Billionaire Heiress” dives head first into a seedy melee of passion and betrayal. Within the first 30 seconds of the micro-series, which consists of 55 two-minute episodes, a woman named Joyce is forced to give her husband’s lover a blood transfusion in order to save the mistress’s life. The first ten minutes depict coerced marriages, inheritance battles and sundry infidelities. The storyline is choppy and nearly impossible to follow. To say the acting is hammy would be generous.
American viewers can tune in to dozens of similar rapid-fire dramas, with titles such as “The Double Life of My Billionaire Husband” and “Son-in-Law’s Revenge”, on an app called ReelShort. If it all seems a bit foreign, then that is because it is. ReelShort is owned by col Group, a digital publisher based in Beijing. Some of its shows are adapted by Chinese teams at col’s Californian subsidiary, Crazy Maple Studio, from Chinese scripts that were first written and produced for audiences in China.
That does not stop Americans from lapping them up. On November 11th ReelShort briefly surpassed TikTok to become the most popular entertainment app in Apple’s American App Store. According to Sensor Tower, a data firm, it has been downloaded almost 2m times in the past month. col’s market value has more than doubled since the start of November, to 22bn yuan ($3bn).
Apps that trace their roots to China have become wildly popular in America in recent years. The cheap products sold by Shein and Temu have found deep markets in America, as have video clips created by TikTok’s mostly Western users. ReelShort builds on earlier Crazy Maple apps, such as Chapters (a story-game launched in 2017, which lets readers choose their own adventure) and Kiss (which offers a wide selection of romance and mystery stories, and now ranks 14th in the App Store’s books category). The trend contradicts the idea that Chinese cultural products do not translate well for Western audiences.
ReelShort has followed a path trodden by other Chinese apps in America. For a start, it uses a business model that first succeeded in China. During the covid-19 pandemic, when cinemas were closed, many big film studios began instead to produce micro-series. Local apps such as Miyou Short Drama and the state-backed Hema Theatre offer viewers many episodes of a series free of charge and then ask them to pay often as little as one yuan to watch further instalments. Viewers, most of whom are blue-collar workers, often end up forking over the equivalent of a cinema ticket to complete the series, says Malik Naibi of Duke 65, a social-media marketing agency. ReelShort has brought this concept, and the storylines for some of its Chinese shows, to its target audience in America: middle-aged women.
Second, like other Chinese-linked apps that are popular in America, ReelShort does not advertise its Chinese roots. The Crazy Maple website makes no mention of China. Similarly, Temu, which is owned by pdd, one of China’s biggest e-commerce groups, describes itself as being “founded in Boston”. TikTok, whose owner, ByteDance, is based in Beijing, and Shein, which was founded in China and relies on Chinese garment-makers, have both moved their headquarters to Singapore.
The apps have something else in common—they have all targeted foreign markets in part to get around challenges in China. Although Shein and Temu sought their luck abroad from their inception, that may be in part because the domestic market has been looking weak. TikTok is a way for ByteDance to hedge against periodic value-destroying tech crackdowns by the communist authorities (though it has run into other problems in America, where some politicians are calling for a ban owing to its Chinese ties).
col’s bet on America, too, may be a response to problems at home. By the end of February Chinese censors had purged the web of 1.4m micro-series episodes and shut down 2,420 mini-shows deemed to be explicit or vulgar. America has no government censors—and explicit vulgarity may be a selling-point.
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