Weakening Germany, strengthening the U.S.削弱德国，加强美国。 The present state of the U.S. economy does not suggest that it can function without financial and material support from external sources. The quantitative easing policy, which the Fed has resorted to regularly in recent years, as well as the uncontrolled issue of cash during the 2020 and 2021 Covid lockdowns, have led to a sharp increase in the external debt and an increase in the dollar supply. 美国经济的现状并不意味着它可以在没有外部资金和物质支持的情况下发挥作用。美联储近年来经常采取的量化宽松政策，以及在2020和2021新冠肺炎疫情期间不受控制的现金发行，导致外债大幅增加，美元供应增加。
The continuing deterioration of the economic situation is highly likely to lead to a loss in the position of the Democratic Party in Congress and the Senate in the forthcoming elections to be held in November 2022. The impeachment of the President cannot be ruled out under these circumstances, which must be avoided at all costs. 经济形势的持续恶化极有可能导致民主党在即将于2022年11月举行的国会和参议院选举中失去地位。在这种情况下，不能排除弹劾总统的可能性，必须不惜一切代价避免弹劾。
There is an urgent need for resources to flow into the national economy, especially the banking system. Only European countries bound by EU and NATO commitments will beable to provide them without significant military and political costs for us. 迫切需要资源流入国民经济，特别是银行系统。只有受欧盟和北约承诺约束的欧洲国家才能为我们提供这些援助，而不会给我们带来巨大的军事和政治成本。
The major obstacle to it is growing independence of Germany. Although it still is a country with limited sovereignty, for decades it has been consistently moving toward lifting these limitations and becoming a fully independent state. This movement is slow and cautious, but steady. Extrapolation shows that the ultimate goal can be reached only in several decades. However, if social and economic problems in the United States escalate, the pace could accelerate significantly. 其主要障碍是德国日益独立。尽管它仍是一个主权有限的国家，但几十年来，它一直在朝着解除这些限制和成为一个完全独立的国家的方向前进。这一运动缓慢而谨慎，但稳定。外推表明，最终目标只能在几十年内实现。然而，如果美国的社会和经济问题升级，速度可能会大大加快。
An additional factor contributing to Germnany's economic independence is Brexit. With the withdrawal of the UK from the EU structures, we have lost a meaningful opportunity to influence the negotiation of crossgovemmental decisions. 促成德国经济独立的另一个因素是脱欧。随着英国退出欧盟结构，我们失去了影响跨政府决策谈判的重要机会。
It is fear of our negative response which by and large determines the relatively slow speed of those changes. If one day we abandon Europe, there will be a good chance for Germany and France to get to a full political consensus. Then, Italy and other Old Europe countries - primarily the former ECSC members may join it on certain conditions. Britain, which is currently outside the European Union, will not be able to resist the pressure of the Franco-German duo alone. If implemented, this scenario will eventually tum Europe into not only an economic, but also a political competitor to the United States. 总的来说，正是对我们消极反应的恐惧决定了这些变化相对缓慢的速度。如果有一天我们放弃欧洲，德国和法国将有很好的机会达成全面的政治共识。然后，意大利和其他旧欧洲国家——主要是前欧盟委员会成员国——可能会在某些条件下加入欧盟。目前在欧盟之外的英国，将无法单独抵抗法德两国的压力。如果实施这一设想，最终将使欧洲不仅成为美国的经济竞争对手，而且成为美国的政治竞争对手。
Besides, if the U.S. is for a certain period is engulfed by domestic problems, the Old Europe will be able to more effectively resist the influence of the U. S. -oriented Eastern European countries. 此外，如果美国在一段时间内被国内问题吞没，旧欧洲将能够更有效地抵御以美国为导向的东欧国家的影响。
sanctions regime to be introduced without any obstacles. The lack of professionalism of the current leaders will not allow a setback in the future, even when the negative impact of the chosen policy becomes obvious enough. The partners in the German coalition will simply have to follow their - at least until the load of economic problems outweighs the fear of provoking a govemment crisis. 无任何障碍地实施制裁制度。即使所选政策的负面影响变得足够明显，现任领导人缺乏专业精神也不会让未来出现挫折。德国联盟中的伙伴们将不得不追随他们的脚步——至少直到经济问题的负担超过了引发政府危机的恐惧。
However, even when the SPD and the FDP are ready to go against the Greens, the possibility for the next government to return relations with Russia to normal soon enough will be noticeably limited. Germany's involvement in large supplies of weapons and military equipment to the Ukrainian army will inevitably generate a strong mistrust in Russia, which will make the negotiation process quite lengthy. 然而，即使社民党和自民党准备与绿党对抗，下一届政府尽快恢复与俄罗斯关系正常的可能性也明显有限。德国参与向乌克兰军队提供大量武器和军事装备，将不可避免地在俄罗斯产生强烈的不信任，这将使谈判过程相当漫长。
If war crimes and Russian aggression against Ukraine are confirmed, the German political- leadership will not be able to overcome its EU partners'veto on assistance to Ukraine and reinforced sanctions packages. This will ensure a sufficiently long gap in cooperation between Germany and Russia, which will make large German economic operators uncompetitive. 如果战争罪行和俄罗斯对乌克兰的侵略得到证实，德国政治领导层将无法克服欧盟伙伴对援助乌克兰的否决权，也无法加强对乌克兰的制裁。这将确保德国和俄罗斯之间有足够长的合作差距，这将使大型德国经济运营商失去竞争力。
Expected Consequences预期后果
A reduction in Russian energy supplies ideally, a complete halt of such supplies- would lead to disastrous outcomes for German industry. The need to divert significant amounts of Russian gas for winter heating of residential and public facilities will further exacerbate the shortages. Lockdowns in industrial enterprises will cause shortages of components and spare parts for manufacturing, a breakdown of logistic chains, and, eventually, a domino effect. A complete standstill at the largest in the chemical, metallurgical, and machine-building, plants is likely, while they have virtually no spare capacity to reduce energy consumption. It could lead to the shutting down of continuous-cycle enterprises, which would mean their destruction. 理想情况下，俄罗斯能源供应的减少，完全停止此类供应，将给德国工业带来灾难性的后果。需要将大量俄罗斯天然气用于住宅和公共设施的冬季供暖，这将进一步加剧短缺。工业企业的停工将导致制造业零部件短缺、物流链崩溃，并最终产生多米诺骨牌效应。化工、冶金和机械制造业中的工厂可能会完全停产，而它们实际上没有多余的产能来降低能耗。这可能导致连续循环企业关闭，这意味着它们将被摧毁。
The cumulative losses of the German economy can be estimated only approximately. Even if the restriction of Russian supplies is limited to 2022, its consequences will last for several years, and the total losses could reach 200-300 billion euros. Not only will it deliver a devastating blow to the German economy, but the entire EU economy will inevitably collapse. We are talking not about a decline in economy growth pace, but about a sustained recession and a decline in GDP only in material production by 3-4% per year for the next 5-6 years. Such a fall will inevitably cause panic in the financial markets and may bring them to a collapse. 德国经济的累计损失只能近似估计。即使俄罗斯的供应限制限制在2022年，其后果也将持续数年，总损失可能达到2000-3000亿欧元。这不仅会给德国经济带来毁灭性打击，而且整个欧盟经济也将不可避免地崩溃。我们所说的并不是经济增长速度的下降，而是持续的衰退，以及未来5-6年内，国内生产总值（GDP）每年仅在物质生产方面下降3-4%。这样的下跌将不可避免地引起金融市场的恐慌，并可能导致金融市场崩溃。
The euro will inevitably, and most likely irreversibly, fall below the dollar. A sharp fall of euro will consequently cause its global sale. It will become a toxic currency, and all countries in the world will rapidly reduce its share in their forex reserves. This gap will be primarily filled with dollar and yuan. 欧元将不可避免地、最有可能不可逆转地跌破美元。欧元的急剧下跌将导致其全球销售。它将成为一种有毒货币，世界各国将迅速减少其在外汇储备中的份额。这一缺口将主要由美元和人民币填补。
Another inevitable consequence of a prolonged economic recession will be a sharp drop in living standards and rising unemployment (up to 200,000-400,000 in Germany alone) , which will entail the exodus of skilled labour and well-educated young people. There are literally no other destinations for such migration other than the United States today. A somewhat smaller, but also。 长期经济衰退的另一个不可避免的后果是生活水平急剧下降和失业率上升（仅在德国就高达200000-400000人）。这将导致熟练劳动力和受过良好教育的年轻人大量外流。除了今天的美国，几乎没有其他目的地可以进行这种移民。
quite significant flow of migrants can be expected from other EU countries.预计其他欧盟国家将有相当大的移民流动。
The scenario under consideration will thus serve to strengthen the national financial condition both indirectly and most directly. In the short term, it will reverse the trend of the looming economic recession and, in addition, consolidate American society by distracting it from immediate economic concerns. This, in turn, will reduce electoral risks.因此，正在考虑的情况将有助于间接和最直接地加强国家财政状况。在短期内，它将扭转即将到来的经济衰退的趋势，并通过分散对当前经济问题的关注来巩固美国社会。这反过来将减少选举风险。
In the medium term (4-5 years) , the cumulative benefits of capital flight, re-oriented logistical flows and reduced competition in major industries may amount to USD 7-9 trillion.从中期来看（4-5年），资本外逃、物流重新定向和主要行业竞争减少的累计收益可能达到7-9万亿美元。
Unfortunately, China is also expected to benefit over the medium term from this emerging scenario. At the same time, Europe's deep political dependence on the U.S. allows us to effectively neutralise possible attempts by individual European states to draw closer to China.不幸的是，预计中国在中期内也将从这一新兴情景中受益。与此同时，欧洲对美国的深刻政治依赖使我们能够有效地抵消个别欧洲国家拉近与中国关系的可能尝试。