We hosted Nevro management for two days of investor meetings last week. A wide range of topics were covered, including: (1) the timing and pace of rep hiring trends, both as it relates to 1Q sales and the expected ramp over the balance of the year; (2)
the status of the surgical paddle lead launch; (3) the launch strategy behind Nevro’s
smaller next-gen device; and (4) the pipeline. Overall the meetings were notably positive, and reaffirm our confidence in both our above consensus 2017 outlook --
$325M (+42%) vs. the Street at $318M -- and the company’s long-term trajectory. We
reiterate our OW rating.
 Nevro continues to be bullish about the upward trajectory of its business.
Internationally, where Nevro has been on the market for several years, the company has one-third of the rechargeable market. Remember outside the US the market is
split ~60% primary cell SCS (where cost is the driving factor) and ~40%
rechargeable, which is where Nevro competes with Senza. In the US, where the market is 90% rechargeable, Nevro expressed a goal of at least matching its International share (i.e. greater than 1/3) and is investing accordingly. In 2016, the company added 93 reps, including 25-28 in each of the last three quarters. In 1H17,
management continues to hire aggressively and we wouldn’t be surprised to see another 40-50 adds versus the 30 reflected in our model. Note that relative to management’s goal of capturing at least a third of the market, Street consensus is
modeling a 2017 share of 17.7% rising to 24.1% in 2020.
 Management reiterated guidance for flat sequential US sales growth in 1Q. As
discussed on the 4Q call, this is due to (1) normal seasonality, with 1Q SCS market
implants typically down about 4% from the fourth quarter, and (2) the timing of rep
hires in 4Q15 and 1Q16. In 1Q17 we model a 7% sequential market decline, due to
the timing of NANS this year (Jan. 2017 vs. Dec. 2015, meaning stronger 4Q and weaker 1Q by 1-2 selling days).
 The slowdown in 4Q15 and 1Q16 US reps adds will be felt in 1Q. To support the 2015 US launch, Nevro added 70 US reps in 1H15, followed by an additional 22 in 3Q15. These early rep adds (1) generally had SCS or similar market experience, many with strong existing relationships, and (2) were targeting high volume early adopters. This meant that on average new reps were taking 6-9 months to come up the learning curve. In 4Q15 as management was focused on executing the US launch, only 8 new reps were hired, followed by 13 in 1Q16. This slowdown in adds was felt in 4Q16, and will again impact 1Q17.

前些天看到JPM又出了个拜访管理层后点评报告，说二季度后增长会加速，总体上还是很看好的。看上去基本面没什么问题，不过爆发力确实和原来想象的有所不同，对医药代表的依赖性强了点

赞耐心，我是坐着电梯上上下下几趟了；