高盛的南下资金分析做的不错，今年港股最大的活水就是南下资金，相比完全场内博弈的A股，显然港股的机会要大得多。但市场从沪港通开通以来就一直以为最受益于南下资金的会是AH高折价股、港股稀有标的（譬如博彩股），可事实上最受益的却是中资银行股、汽车股和内房股。什么逻辑？很简单，除了开始的几个月之外，绝大部分南下资金一直是以长期配置的思路在买，而不是短期博弈。长期配置的资金最关注什么？第一安全边际，第二流动性好，第三股息率高。回看去年中旬，中资银行股应该是最符合这三个条件的。那现在呢？银行股其实不够诱人了（但大资金仍然是首选），各行各业的龙头如果趴在地上没起来，各方面又符合条件的话，可能是被重点进攻的对象。另外被内地券商覆盖也会成为一个加分项，毕竟让机构去了解一家新公司是很费时间的。

附上高盛研报摘要：

Southbound (net) flows have exceeded US$7bn ytd, outpacing ETF and active flows of US$ 1.6bn and -US$1.0bn respectively, and becoming the most importance source of capital inflows to the HK market. We address three key ‘Hows’ in this piece.

We estimate net Southbound flows to reach US$ 54bn/US$51bn in 17/18 (US$ 32bn in 16) based on our top-down model and cross-industry comparison. By 2018, we expect Southbound ownership in HK stocks to rise to 5.1% from 1.3% at present, and turnover to account for 8.4% of HKEx's trading from 4.3% now. 

Rmb weakness aside, we see the asymmetry between China&# 39;s capital base (US$19tn) and HK's market depth (US$ 2.1tn free-float cap), broadening of institutional investor pool (mutual funds, insurers, pension fund), and sustained demand for outbound portfolio investment/diversification underpinning the longevity of Southbound flows, and channeling sticky, and fundamental-driven capital to HK. 

Conventional wisdom hasn&# 39;t been very effective in predicting flow recipients, and flows haven't always translated into alpha, underscoring the practical merits of focusing on our Select "Southbound favorites" which boast high Southbound ownership and participation, and with solid fundamental support.

$H股ETF(SH510900)$ $恒生ETF(SZ159920)$ $香港中小(SH501021)$