Commodity futures markets may have reached a mid-term turning point.
In the long term, the origin of the boom in the commodity market lies in the "negative oil price" event, which is when the rise of the plague caused the price of crude oil to fall to -$37. Although this matter attracted a lot of attention, it was not taken seriously. I made a significant definition after the incident: "negative oil prices" are the starting point of inflation and the starting point of the prosperity of the commodity futures market. Prior to this, the global society was in deflation and commodity prices were also in a period of decline. The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted and reversed the situation. Everything changed. A ten-year inflation cycle begins.
I’ve been fully involved since then and experienced a lot. Market rescue, epidemic prevention, supply chain disruption, war, high inflation, interest rate hikes... As a series of events occurred, the commodity market experienced an obvious mid-term correction (from the perspective of the weekly K-line).
It now reaches a very delicate position: it can fall further, or it can reverse. Further explanation: If you think that the whole cycle will end here, then the market will fall further until a new big cycle starts; if you think that the whole big cycle is still running, and regard the decline in the past year as the market's If there is a technical adjustment, the market will usher in a main rise, that is, it will repair quickly and then reach a new high. I've chosen the latter. I think commodity futures prices will regain the price it lost very quickly from now on.
I am participating in the commodity futures markets in China and the United States. I closed my short agricultural position in the Chinese market and went straight back long on them. I did the same thing in the U.S. futures market, going long local natural gas futures. Judging from the current results, it has not been effective yet. What I need to clarify is that a direct backhand is necessary. I had to be quick because gambling requires turning points to be profitable, otherwise you need to pay a very high fee. However, the actions of making concepts and making value investments need to be slower.
I still have no plans to invest in the Chinese stock market, but I am actively shorting the US stock index. I think there will be an adjustment in the U.S. stock market because it is accompanied by high interest rates, high valuations, and a distorted game matrix.
The price of Bitcoin has reached $60,000, which is beyond expectations. There is a trade-off relationship between Bitcoin and gold, which is very secret and needs to be seen through mutual comparison. I plan to invest in gold when Bitcoin stops rising.