(Chinglish by **Translator)
This is an exploratory information observation today. My information observation methods are divided into three types: 1. Casual browsing, reading every day, reading everything, reading without thinking, but not obsessed with it; 2. Exploratory browsing, reading financial information, reading it once a week and taking notes , but only record the feelings and be a bystander; 3. Master mode, select a tradable variety every month and record it in precise language/text.
Standard market performance over the past year -
Currency
Global currencies are falling against the US dollar, with a 5% vs 95% rise/fall ratio, and the average decline is not that big. The currencies of Central and North America showed a trend of rising; the rise of the currencies of Afghanistan and Iraq was in the form of bottoming out; some non-Euro countries around Ukraine (Moldova, Albania, Poland) rose, a technical rise; the Swiss franc rose slightly, a technical rise.
[Strong U.S. Dollar] The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy is the main reason for the situation, and the U.S. dollar index continues to hover above 100. Under this situation, even if the U.S. dollar does not appreciate further and remains at the current level, the exchange rates of various countries, especially currencies with more internal structural problems, will also depreciate. In other words, the main reason for the strength of the dollar is a combination of problems in other countries.
[War] The issue of Russian vs Ukrainian is in a complicated period. Russia holds elections next month and Putin is expected to be re-elected. Ukrainian wanted to achieve a decisive victory before then, so the commander was changed, which would be effective for less than a month from now. The issues between the Jordan River and the Red Sea are still ongoing, with the United Kingdom and the United States adopting a policy of appeasement, while the European Union, especially France, is active and moderate. I like Macron's stance.
Commodity
Crude oil remained flat, gold rose slightly, standard staple foods (beans, wheat, corn) fell by 30%, all solid materials fell, and cryptocurrencies rose back to the collapse point. Affected by the dual pressures of the US anti-inflation policy and the conclusion of relevant commodity circulation agreements, related commodities have fallen back to the levels of three years ago. In recent years, due to various concerns, countries have carried out strategic reserves of raw materials to varying degrees. Falling prices depreciate inventories and require large storage costs, so some organizations are choosing opportunities to clear inventory unless there are new political tasks.
[In the commodity market, the performance of various products varies greatly] The investment product ZLZ Fund has operated, natural gas futures, has fallen to US$1.75; it was as high as US$10. Looking back, it still feels thrilling. A few years ago, ZLZ Fund invested in natural gas prices in the early stages of rising prices and cleared positions at a higher position, which enabled the fund to get out of trouble and achieve profits.
The price of lithium futures fell by 80% (the price of electric vehicle-related material futures fell by 50% on average); cocoa rose by 120%; cryptocurrencies have strong repair capabilities, and the most representative Bitcoin has recently returned to its previous high. It’s hard to figure out Bitcoin’s price patterns, but gold is a little easier. Gold is facing a short-term correction, but it has risen sharply because the price pattern, popularity, and various macro logic all support this judgment.
Stock Market
Global stock markets are in a bull market, The rise and fall ratio of the European stock index is 70:30; The rise and fall ratio of the American stock index is 80:20; The rise and fall ratio of the Asian stock index is 60:40; The rise and fall ratio of the African stock index is 50:50; Among the major countries, only China and the UK did not rise (consolidating at a high of -5%). In order to appease emotions and manage public opinion, the national team stepped in to rescue the market, allowing investors to have a stable Spring Festival. I currently do not hold any A-share positions and have done so for several years. Because I think the odds are so low that even an excellent secondary market investor like me is turning away. However, I will always come back in China when the time is right.
Overall
1. The Federal Reserve’s 5% interest rate level is very comfortable for Americans, but it is very high for other countries, so a lot of money is transferred to the United States (this may not only be due to interest rate considerations, but also because of geopolitics). 2. Plagues, wars and natural are testing human adaptability, stimulating human instincts, and changing the social landscape, which will be directly or indirectly reflected in the financial market; 3. This is an election year, and the highlight is at the end of the year, during which there are many desserts. From now on, the concentration of information will increase and financial markets will experience emotional fluctuations.