$AMD(AMD)$ 22Q1 Data-Center Chip Sales Fuel Upbeat Forecas
Rev 5.9b,71%yoy vs est. 5.3b, beat.
EPS 1.13 vs est. 0.92, beat.
Guidance:
22q2, rev 6.5b vs est. 6.03b, beat.
annual, rev 26.3b, 60% vs est. 24.1b,beat，其中amd organic growth ～mid 30s vs est. 31%.
业务分析：
AMD财报中主要是两块大业务：
1. The Computing and Graphics segment ： desktop and notebook processors and chipsets, discrete and integrated graphics processing units (GPUs), data center & professional GPUs and development services. 比如Ryzen CPU系列，Radeon GPU系列，MI1210 data center graphics.
2. The Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom segment： server and embedded processors（EPYC）, semi-custom System-on-Chip (SoC) products（sony和xbox）, development services and technology for game consoles.
PC:
AMD has reduced its expectations for the personal computer market this year. The company had previously projected no growth in PC shipments from 2021 but now expects a decline in the high-single digit percentage range, Su said.
Data center:
ome 48% of all new processors installed in these data centers were bought from AMD in March
电话会议：
CGS市占率继续提升
Client Compute revenue grew by a strong double-digit percentage year over year based on higher Ryzen mobile and desktop processor sales. As a result, we believe we gained client processor revenue share for the eighth straight quarter
PC整体有点soft，但是amd通过产品进入高端系列，提升asp，pc这块增长也还不错。
“I think the softness is in certain parts of the market. It's not in all parts of the market. And our focus is on where we add the most value in the market and that is in the premium segments.”
关于22年指引：从31%提升到mid 30s，再加上xilinx，就是60% yoy。
“On the organic side of the AMD business, we originally guided up 31% based on what we saw in the market in January. As we look at the market now and our own sort of customer and supply situation, we see that organic growth higher, into the mid-30s.”
下个季度AMD会resegment财报的披露方式（终于！）
“In terms of this quarter for the pieces that you mentioned, on higher revenue, the data center for those pieces was, let's call it, low 20s percentage of our overall revenue” 主要是说cpu服务器。这个是amd最性感的业务，市场最关注的业务。
softer PC TAM 2022? YES, 但是我们的市占率会继续提升
" So for our modeling for the full year guidance, we're modeling something like down high single digits."
"we can continue to expect to gain revenue share in the process. And that's sort of our overall strategy."
虽然市场萎缩，但我们的pc cpu营收会继续增长 “We are expecting that we will grow client revenues on a year-over-year basis in that time environment. And we continue to mix shift to, let's call it, the more premium segments and so it's a revenue share statement.”
对于data center，server cpu 2022年指引？
“I'm not going to proclaim a certain, will it double every quarter. I will say that we expect to grow very strongly over the next few quarters.”
“But I think our confidence level in data center growth is very high.”
但主要的增长，确定性的增长，来自“it is a strong visibility in Server, strong visibility on the Console side, strong visibility just from an overall supply and demand perspective.”
any softer demand in server market in late 22 or 23？
我们还没有看到。
“I would say, Tim, we haven't seen that. We haven't seen that particular phenomena. What we do see is that there needs to be good planning, so good planning with our server customers and our large cloud customers. And we're doing that.
And our planning extends beyond 2022, extends into 2023 as well. And from what we can see, it's robust demand.”
22q1 earning call transcript：
估值：
22年，263亿usd营收（60% yoy），54%gpm，24% op exp，13% tax =》 65.5亿usd利润，26%npm，其中amd core business大约51-52亿usd利润，～47% yoy。AMD core business rev 35% growth yoy, my expection for the 2H qoq is possibly flat. 今天95usd价格，1530亿usd市值，forward pe 23.4。
21年，amd挣了34.5亿usd，20年14亿usd，19年亏损。
amd是周期成长行业中的自带阿尔法的股票，因为行业有周期性，所以不给估值预期。
一点想法：
22年应该是amd这几年利润爆发式增长的最后一年，forward pe 23.5，虽然看起来不高，但amd未来三年，考虑到server cpu占比只有low 20s，22年年底估计25% - 30%，这部分业务增长是最快的，未来23，24年，也未必能保证20%的cagr。即使有，但其他占比70%的业务，特别是client pc和game console，是不会有这样的复合增速的。
半导体行业，毕竟他是个周期性行业。
周期如果下行，amd的market share我认为依然会继续上升，台积电的芯片制程的代工优势，短期内，对于intel是无解的，最早可能也要在late 23年才会看到预期的变化。amd如果，我是说如果，跌到1000亿美金（62usd），那会是一个有合理偏低的价格，对应22年15pe。
我曾经在21年1月就认为amd的估值过高，向上空间有限，一旦增速放缓，就会发生双杀。回头来看，amd不断的超预期，股价从21年1月的90-100usd，先是回调到70+，然后又涨到160+，对应的pe过程大概是：
2020年：pe 69 =》135，750亿usd -〉1500亿usd，14亿利润
2021年：pe 50 =》83，1500亿 -〉2600亿，34.5亿利润，146% yoy，其中营收增速68%，其他是利润率提升，从17%=》25%，提升47%。
如何去理解amd 21年6月下旬开始的翻倍行情？我认为主要是业绩切换。20年年底135pe对应20年利润，对应未来一年147%利润增速，peg = 1。同理在持续超预期和大盘整体企稳的市场环境下，21年年底80pe对应21年利润，对应22年70%+的利润增速（考虑赛灵思并表），这种短期增速长期化的假设，无疑是非常危险的。
那么如果是22年年底，65亿的利润，23年必须要在25%+的增速，现在1500亿的市值可能才可以维持住，这并不确定，更别说挣钱了。
我知道amd的财报很好，指引很好，亮瞎眼那种好，但股票的回报，未来1-2年，大概率很差。