$加科思-B(01167)$ 头部国际买方观点汇总
Pimco, JPMorgan Are Gearing Up for Long Winter in China Markets
1. Justin Thomson, T. Rowe Price

The chief investment officer for international equities believes “best investments are made just as you’re feeling most uncomfortable” — a principle he applies to Chinese markets.
While some clients are asking to exclude China from their portfolios due to geopolitical, macro, and regulatory risks, “this negative sentiment provides a contrarian investment opportunity,” he said in an interview.
“The issues surrounding the Chinese property sector are structural not cyclical and will cast a long shadow over the economy, meaning growth rates will be lower than previous decades,” he said. Still, “investors should not make the mistake of conflating economic growth with equity market returns.”
The quality of supply chains in many sectors means China will remain the manufacturing base of choice for many multinationals, while its lead in battery tech and electric vehicles shows the auto industry has the potential to go global.
“As valuations remain low and sentiment hits an extreme, investor interest will return to China as it has in past cycles（“随着估值仍然很低，情绪达到极端，投资者的兴趣将像过去周期一样回到中国）
2. George Efstathopoulos, Fidelity International
The portfolio manager for the Global Multi Asset Income Fund says those who left China will come back once earnings start to be revised upward, adding he is “cautiously optimistic” over the prospect of corporate performances in the next couple of years.
“China used to be kind of the lower-end sort of manufacturing hub. Now it’s the batteries and EVs,” he said in an interview. “Opportunities are changing.”
Another important aspect to watch is how households’ excess savings are unlocked to drive a sustainable recovery in consumption-related earnings.
“As and when that happens, that leads to a return of investors into China at a time when valuations are very, very cheap,” he said.（另一个值得关注的重要方面是如何解锁家庭的超额储蓄，以推动消费相关收入的可持续复苏。
他说：“当这种情况发生时，这会导致投资者在估值非常非常便宜的时候返回中国。”）