2023巴菲特股东信--摘记和思考

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用半年时间考出雅思7.5,不浪费英语功底,读原文,更好理解。

本篇有触动的内容如下:

⭐pundits should always be ignored.

After all, if they could reliably predict tomorrow's winners, would they freely share their valuable insights and thereby increase competitive buying?

That would be like finding gold and then hanging a map to the neighbors showing its location.

别相信所谓的“专家”,他们要能预测未来,凭什么免费分享给你呀?

⭐忽略net income的每年波动,而要去关注operating earnings。

因为net income包含了unrealized capital gains or losses波动较大,短期看没有意义。

看财报别太在意net income,因为包含unrealized capital gains/losses,波动随市场涨跌较大。

而要关注operating earnings是否每年增长。

--这条适用于有大量投资资产的公司。

⭐America has been a terrific country for investors.

All they have needed to do is sit quietly, listening to no one.

🐰还是要投资🇺🇸,主要仓位配置🇺🇸股。

试问可口可乐卖到全世界,农夫山泉能做到吗?

不断增长(长牛)的背后是强大的综合国力。

⭐We particularly favor the rare enterprise that can deploy additional capital at high returns in the future.

Owning only one of these companies--and simply sitting tight--can deliver wealth almost beyond measure.

Even heirs to such a holding can sometimes live a lifetime of leisure.

谁不想live a lifetime of leisure?

⭐managing Berkshire is mostly fun and always interesting.

🐰人啊,还是要去要做你觉得有趣、有意思的事。

巴老是管理波克夏,那你呢?

⭐not-so-secret Weapon
秘密武器是啥呢?
occasionally, markets or the economy will cause stocks and bonds of some large and fundamentally good businesses to be strikingly mispriced.

🐰抓住市场错误定价的机会

Speed of communication and the wonders of technology facilitate instant worldwide paralysis, and we have come a long way since smoke signals.

Such instant panics won't happen often--but they will happen.
🐰拿着大量现金,平日你觉得闲置浪费,一旦市场/经济陷入短期“瘫痪”、“崩溃”时,现金就是宝,现金成了让你抓住超额风险回报比的“秘密武器”。
We did not predict the time of an economic paralysis,but we are always prepared for one.

不预测经济危机发生时点,但一直为之准备着(难怪他组合里有20%这么高比例的现金)。

🐰一般的投资者很难长期持有大量现金,因为认知不够,赚不到这份超额回报的钱。

⭐ RULE: never risk permanent loss of capital!
Thanks to American tailwind and the power of compound interest, the arena in which we operate has been-and will be - rewarding, if you make a couple of good decisions during a lifetime and avoid serious mistakes.

避免严重的错误,避免永久性的损失!

一生中,你只需要做对10来个好的决定即可。

⭐timeless essentials of our world

什么是 永恒的 必需品?

⭐Such repurchases work to increase your participation in every asset Berkshire owns.

回购 本质上 帮你增加 持有的份额比例

(🐰同理可得,腾讯回购自己的股份,相对于变相增加你参与持有拼多多B站等一众国内互联网头部公司的份额。)

⭐When you find a truly wonderful business, stick with it. (🐰紧紧抱着它 别卖)

(🐰段永平说过,卖了苹果茅台,你买什么呢?一般人又拿不住现金。

有个人卖了茅台,换了高息理财,然后连老本都没了…)

Patience pays, and one wonderful business can offset the many mediocre decisions that are inevitable.

一个好的投资能抵消好多平庸的决策。

⭐Berkshire continues to hold its passive and long-term interest in five very large Japanese companies.

被动 长期 持有日本五大商社

⭐Neither Greg and I believe we can forecast market prices of major currencies.

不预测宏观(如货币汇率)。

⭐Berkshire will always attempt to be accurate in its estimates of future loss payments but inflation--both monetary and the "legal" variety-is a wild card.

货币政策型通胀和“合法”通胀都难以预测。

什么是“legal”通胀?