2019 新兴市场的悲观预言 --- 比想象的低得多，持续时间更长

Rising rates in the U.S., a stronger dollar, Beijing and Washington’s trade war, lower oil prices and the emergence of populist leaders in Latin America’s two biggest economies could all weigh on markets.

美国的加息、美元走强、北京和华盛顿的贸易战、油价走低以及拉丁美洲两大经济体民粹主义领导人的出现，都可能对市场产生影响。

“The theory is dead simple: emerging-market assets have already bombed, so the downside, if things get worse, is much lower and if things recover they have greater potential to perform,” said Anthony Peters, an independent analyst, formerly at Blockex Ltd., who’s long covered developing nations. However, “they have the potential to go much lower for much longer than anybody had ever thought possible.”

“这一理论非常简单：新兴市场的资产已经爆炸，因此，如果情况变得更糟，下跌的幅度会更低，如果情况恢复，下跌的可能性也会更大，”前布洛克克斯公司（BlockexLtd.）独立分析师安东尼•彼得斯（AnthonyPeters）说，他长期以来一直在关注发展中国家。然而，“他们有潜力比任何人想象的低得多，持续时间更长。”