2019 中国经济报道 bloomberg 摘录笔记（4）

Finally, Chinese banks are under enormous pressure. Bank of China Ltd. has announced plans to sell as much as 40 billion yuan ($5.8 billion) of perpetual bonds; other banks are considering raising 100 billion yuan each. Only in November, the central bank’s financial stability report declared Chinese bank capital “abundant.” With new loans outpacing new deposits by 13 percent in 2018, how the government recapitalizes a strained banking sector will be a major theme in the coming year. This matters because authorities will struggle to carry out fiscal stimulus as long as banks are capital-constrained.

最后，中资银行面临巨大压力。中国银行（BankofChinaLtd.）宣布计划出售高达400亿元人民币（58亿美元）的永久性债券；其他银行正在考虑各自筹集1000亿元人民币。直到11月，央行的金融稳定报告才宣布中国银行资本“充裕”。随着2018年新增贷款超过新增存款13%，政府如何对紧张的银行业进行资本重组将是来年的一个主要主题。这一点很重要，因为只要银行资本受到限制，政府将难以实施财政刺激。

Stimulus would provide some short-term relief, though at the cost of setting back a deleveraging process that’s essential to the Chinese economy’s long-term health.

刺激计划将提供一些短期的缓解，但代价是推迟对中国经济长期健康至关重要的去杠杆化进程。

Every year the challenges for Beijing get bigger, yet the responses only delay the reckoning rather than addressing the problem. Never underestimate China’s ability to sustain growth, but don’t expect solutions. Increasingly expensive palliatives look the more likely route in 2019

每年，北京面临的挑战越来越大，但这些反应只会推迟计算，而不是解决问题。不要低估中国保持增长的能力，但不要期望解决方案。越来越昂贵的姑息药在2019年看起来更像是一条路线。