点评：自从生成式人工智能成为现实，不到两年的时间英伟达市值就从4000 亿飞速升到3 万亿美元，6 月19 日更是问鼎全球第一，现在看是资本盛宴，但是这个泡沫已经很危险了，ChatGPT的运营成本每天高达70万美元，但是现实的商业方案并不明确，这就像2000年初互联网泡沫一样。
埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）在6月股东大会以压倒性多数通过其570亿美元的薪酬方案时，他对公司大胆预测： 最终，特斯拉将价值 30 万亿美元。而目前特斯拉市值仅仅5700亿美元，这意味着特斯拉股价要翻51倍多，价值几乎达到微软、英伟达的 10 倍，未来仿人机器人（如特斯拉的 Optimus）的市场需求将达到每年 10 亿台，而特斯拉将占据约 10% 的市场份额。这位首席执行官还重申，“擎天柱 ”机器人的制造成本最终将低于一辆汽车，约为 1 万美元，售价在 2 万至 3 万美元之间。以2万美元的价格和1亿台的年销量计算，特斯拉每年可获利1万亿美元，使特斯拉的市值增加20万亿至25万亿美元。这些机器人预计要到2025年底才能上市销售，马斯克希望2025年开始限量生产 Optimus，有 1000台Optimus机器人在特斯拉工作。
只要故事不结束，就有成功的机会，只是有多少投资者会买特斯拉的船票呢？
提问者： 下午好 我叫卡罗琳，是圣地亚哥的一名律师。请不要再对我说这些了。请记住，芒格先生曾经也是一名律师。首先，我要衷心感谢你，巴菲特先生，感谢你的商业诚信、孜孜不倦的领导以及对慈善事业的慷慨贡献。我想向尊敬的两位嘉宾提出的问题是，既然人工智能的精灵已经从瓶子里出来了，正如今天早些时候有人敏锐地指出的那样，伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司的哪些业务可能会因人工智能而面临最大风险？
沃伦·巴菲特：这个问题问得好。问题是我对人工智能一无所知，显然，我对任何需要大量劳动力的东西都一无所知，而且人工智能可以创造大量的休闲时间。现在，世界如何利用休闲时间是另一个问题，是否需要更多的休闲时间。我知道很多人刚开始上班时，认为他们想要的是休闲时间。我喜欢的是有更多的问题需要解决。但人工智能意义深远。这就是它成为精灵的原因。会发生什么？我可以讲几个关于精灵的笑话，但最好不要。我想。当我们可能，我不知道，你知道，就我们的业务而言，他们会想出办法。我的意思是，我们有聪明的人。显然，如果以亲社会的方式使用它，它会给社会带来巨大的好处。但我不知道如何确保事情会这样发展，就像我不知道如何确保在二战中使用两颗原子弹时，你不会制造出以后会毁灭世界的东西一样。
Greg Abel：是的，我认为当我们在许多业务部门考虑人工智能时，我的意思是，我们真的是一个整体，试图思考它如何让我们更有效率、更有效？我的意思是，它会带来更多的闲置时间。我们可能没有考虑迭代式人工智能，我们正在寻找非常具体的流程，我们的员工可以实施它。有时它会取代劳动力，但希望在业务中还有其他机会。但我认为，当你考虑我们所有的业务时，我的意思是，我们确实拥有大量的劳动力，但我认为在我们作为一家公司所处的阶段，也许现在的情况是，如果涉及危险流程，我们真正关心的是我们如何更有效、更高效、更安全地做事？所以我们才刚刚开始。
沃伦·巴菲特：约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯的著作非常精彩，他的头脑也非常了不起。但在我出生的时候，他写了一本关于未来会发生什么的书。我不知道是在未来一百年还是其他什么时间。他正确地预测了人均产出将以惊人的速度增长。但就人们会如何利用这一点进行推测而言，我的意思是，这家伙非常聪明，但事情并没有像他预测的那样发展。他对方程式中应该包含的内容是正确的，但他没有。他根本不知道到底是什么，结果会是什么？所以，我们在开发核弹的时候并不知道很快就会有九个国家，其中三个国家我们应该担心，很多国家会拥有他们所拥有的东西，但我们真的别无选择。你可以把各种各样的文件写在上面，还有其他东西，但我们无论如何都要这么做。我们需要这么做。
如果你还没有读过，去谷歌阅读利奥·西拉德和阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦写给罗斯福总统的信会很有趣。这封信写于大约一个月前，几乎就在德国入侵波兰的一个月前。信中说得很清楚，利奥·西拉德知道会发生什么，或者对核弹开发将会发生什么有很好的预感。他没能联系到罗斯福。但他知道一封由阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦签名的信可以。所以这可能是有史以来最重要的一封信，你可以读到它，这对我来说很有趣，但这封信启动了曼哈顿计划。这开始了一切。一切都由此展开。我敢打赌罗斯福不明白，但他明白阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦发了一封信，他可能知道他在说什么。他最好开始曼哈顿计划。这个世界上发生的事情真是令人难以置信。不管怎样，我们继续谈论贝基吧，我想，接下来是贝基，对吧？
Questioner: Good afternoon. My name is Caroline and I’m a lawyer in San Diego. Please don’t hold that again with me. Remember, Mr Munger was once an attorney too. First, I’d like to sincerely thank you, Mr Buffett, for your business integrity, tireless leadership, and generous contribution to philanthropy. My question for the distinguished panel of two is, now that the AI genie is out of the bottle, as someone astutely put it earlier today, what business in Berkshire Hathaway may be most at risk with AI.
Warren Buffett: Well, that’s a wonderful question. The problem is I really don’t know anything about AI, obviously, anything that’s labor intensive and that it can create an enormous amount of leisure time. Now, what the world does with leisure time is another question, whether more leisure time. I know an awful lot of people think when they go to work at first what they want is leisure time. And what I like is actually having more problems to solve. But AI is profound. That’s what makes it, makes it a genie. Is what going to happen?I could tell a few genie jokes but I better not. I guess. When we probably, I don’t know what, you know, in terms of our businesses, they’ll figure things out. I mean, we’ve got smart people. Obviously, if it’s used in a pro social way, it’s got terrific benefits to society. But I don’t know how you make sure that that’s what happens any more than I know how to be sure that when you use two atomic bombs in World War Two that you knew that you hadn’t created something that could destroy the world later on.
Greg Abel: Yeah, I think when we think of AI at a lot of the business units, I mean, we’re truly one, trying to think how does it make us more efficient, more effective? I mean, it results in more idle time. And we’re probably not thinking of the iterative AI where we’re looking at very specific processes where our people can implement it. And either at times it displaces the labor, but then hopefully there’s other opportunities for them within the business. But I think when you think of all our businesses, I mean, we do have a heavy labor workforce and a lot of them, but I think at the stage we’re at as a company and maybe where it’s at right now, it’s really around how do we do things more effective, more efficiently, more safely, if it involves dangerous processes? So we’re early innings.
Warren Buffett: John Maynard Keynes was just wonderful to read and incredible mind. But in around the time I was born, he wrote a book about what could happen. I don’t know whether it was in the next hundred years or whatever. And he predicted correctly that that output per capita would grow at this incredible rate that it has. But in terms of speculating as what people would do with that, I mean, this guy was unbelievably smart, but it hasn’t developed exactly the way he predicted. He was right about what was going to go into the equation, but he wasn’t. He didn’t have it figured out exactly what at all, what would be the result? So it is really, well, we didn’t know when we were developing the bomb that there would probably be this very soon nine countries, three of whom we should worry about plenty that will have what they have, but we didn’t really have anychoice. And you could have had all kinds of papers written on and everything else, but we were going to do it anyway. We needed to do it.
And if you haven’t read it, it’s fascinating to go to Google and read the letter by Leo Szilard and Albert Einstein to President Roosevelt, written about a month before, almost exactly a month before Germany moved into Poland. And it laid out well, Leo Szilard knew what was going to happen or had a good hunch of what was going to happen in terms of nuclear bomb development. And he couldn’t get through to Roosevelt. But he knew that a letter signed by Albert Einstein would. So it’s probably the most important letter ever written and you can read it, which is just fascinating to me, but that started the Manhattan project. That started it. Just everything flowed out of it. And I’ll bet anything that Roosevelt didn’t understand it, but he understood that Albert Einstein sent a letter and he probably knew what he was talking about. And he better get, he better start the Manhattan project. It is just unbelievable what happens in this world. Anyway, let’s move on to Becky, I guess, is next, right?