点评：巴菲特在被问到普世智慧时，坦白地说自己最大的本事就是避开厄运（my great skill has been avoiding bad luck），这让我们联想到了芒格先生的逆向思维：如果知道我会死在哪里，那我将永远不去那个地方。人生要懂得生活的概率，不仅仅是只会套用贝叶斯公式。巴菲特也是从失败的投资经历中成长起来，只是他学习得更快，他在入门时学过各种方法，不过他从K线图里快速走了出来，在聪明的投资者中找到了成功的钥匙。
提问者：您好，巴菲特先生。我叫张亚博，来自中国海南的小城市。因此，我要向您表示最诚挚的谢意，感谢您为股东创造的非凡价值，以及对我们这些年轻一代投资者的积极影响。我的问题与最大化复利持续时间的概念有关。随着个人年龄的增长，复利的质量不可避免地会下降。您保持敏锐的秘诀是什么？非凡的判断力和良好的身体状况。祝您一切顺利。谢谢。
沃伦·巴菲特：好吧，您不太了解我，但这就是我喜欢的。继续说吧。你知道，你必须非常幸运。我的意思是，毫无疑问，有 100 或 1000 个。你知道，乘以一些次数，一些醉汉可能会从车里出来撞到我，或者，你知道，只是你在生活中可能遇到的坏运气。我可以说我最大的技能是避免坏运气，但这不是技能。那是运气或坏事。然后就会成为。如果你上过我的高中课，我就不会成为。你说你们当中有几个人会活到 90 岁。男人会活到 93 岁，也许我有。你知道，我不会。我不会成为大热门，我可以告诉你。我不会把赌注押在自己身上。但你只是。现在，当你有运气的时候，你应该充分利用它。有时我这样做了，有时我没有。
我的意思是，如果我必须再做一次，我会做出很多不同的选择，无论它们最终是否会像成功的事情一样成功，这是绝对正确的。很难想象它们怎么会变得更好。所以。但有趣的是，如果你继续前进，你会犯多少错误。查理，你知道，当他过去常说，你只要坚持下去，你只要继续前进，然后。但你仍然需要运气，你知道，你不想。任何说这一切都是我自己做的的人都是在开玩笑。我的意思是，这只是。他们妄想，你知道，实际上生活在一个预期寿命相当不错的国家，你知道，所以仅凭这一点就是一个巨大的优势。
我出生了，如果我出生了，我的妹妹就在这里，她生来就是女性，她只是。和我一样聪明。但即使是我自己的家人，他们真的过得很好，特别是我爸爸，也同样爱我们所有人，非常爱我们。但他仍然告诉我，这是在第十九修正案通过十年后诞生的，但他基本上告诉我的姐妹们，早婚，你仍然有你的长相。他告诉我，这个世界，你身上的力量是新的，你真的可以做任何事情。嗯，我发现有很多事情我做不到，但即使是最善良、最慈爱的父母，给女性和男性的信息也大不相同。
你知道，就像我说的，在 1930 年，我的意思是，这种情况已经持续了数百万年。它发生了相当大的变化，但显然不是完全的，但在我有生之年，但那是在我生命的后半段。以我的姐妹为例，如果她们晚出生五年或十年，她们在去上大学时仍然会得到指示，当然，她们会在我们安排好的时候结婚，这样你就会在上学的时候结婚，因为毕业后，所有好人都被带走了。伯蒂告诉我，这基本上是她遇到的很多女人都传达的信息，显然。所以，我们取得的进步真的非常了不起，但令人难以置信的是，我们花了这么长时间才取得这一进步。我的意思是，这确实让你感到疑惑，你知道，美国历史上有这么多英雄，他们做了这么多伟大的事情，但他们怎么能说所有男人都是生而平等的，然后又写出一部宪法，规定女人不能拥有财产，只能依靠国家。我的意思是，条件太糟糕了。但无论如何，这就是你了解人类能做什么的方式。
我觉得，无论情况如何，你对孩子的未来都会比 100 年前感觉更好。不管怎样，我们搬到贝基去吧。
Questioner: Hello, Mr. Buffett. My name is Zhang Yabo. I came from micro City, Hainan, China. So I want to express my sincere gratitude for you, for the extraordinary value you generated for shareholders and the positive influences you’ve had on younger generation of investors like us. And my question relates to the concept of maximizing the duration of compounding. As individuals age, the quality of compounding inevitably diminishes. What are your secrets in maintaining your sharp man? Extraordinary judgment and great physical condition. We wish you well. Thank you.
Warren Buffett: Well, you don’t know me well, but that’s. I like. Just keep talking. You know, you have to be just plain lucky. I mean, there’s no question about it that there’s 100 or a thousand. You know, multiply a number of times that some drunk could have pulled out of the car and broadsided me, or, you know, just the bad luck you can have in life. And I can say my great skill has been avoiding bad luck, but that isn’t a skill. That’s luck or bad activities. And then to ge to be. I would not have been if you’d taken my high school class. And you say a couple of you are going to live to be 90. Men are going to live to be 93, maybe I’ve got. You know, I wouldn’t. I would not have been a heavy favorite, I can tell you that. And I wouldn’t have bet on myself. But you just. Now, you should make the most of your luck when you get it. And sometimes I’ve done that and sometimes I haven’t.
I mean, it is absolutely true that if I had to do over again, there’d be a lot of different choices I would make, whether they would have ended up working out as well as things that worked out. It’s hard to imagine how they could have worked out any better. So. But it is interesting how many mistakes you can make if you just keep going. And Charlie, you know, when he used to talk about that, that you just soldier through, you just keep going, and. But you still need luck, you know, you don’t want to. Anybody that says I did it all myself is just kidding. I mean, it’s just. They’re delusional and, you know, actually living in a country with a life expectancy is pretty darn good, you know, so that alone is a huge plus.
I was born, if I’d been born, my sister’s here, and she was born female, and she’s just. Just as smart as I was and everything. But even my own family, who really did well, particularly my dad, love us all equally in a terrific manner. But he still told me that this is, well, was born ten years after the 19th amendment was past, but he basically told my sisters that marry young, well, you still have your looks. And he told me that the world, that power in you is new in nature and you really could do anything. Well, I found there were a lot of things I couldn’t do, but the message given to females and males was incredibly different by the most well meaning and loving of parents.
You know, like I say, in 1930, I mean, it’s been that way for millions of years. It’s changed quite dramatically, but obviously not completely, but during my lifetime, but it’s been during the latter half of my lifetime. If you take my sisters, if they’d been born even five or ten years later, they still would have been getting instructions when they went away to college, to be sure, and get married while we get arranged so that you’re going to be married while you’re in school, because after you get out, all the good ones are taken. Bertie was telling me that was a message that that basically had been imparted to a lot of the women she had met, obviously. So it really, it’s extraordinary how much progress we’ve made, but it’s unbelievable how long it took to get it made. Imean, it really does make you wonder about, you know, we’ve got all these heroes from american history and all the wonderful things they did, but how could they say all men are created equal and then write a constitution that women, you know, allowed women not to be able to own property and depending on the state. I mean, just terrible conditions. But anyway, that’s how you learn about what the humans can do.
And I feel, and you’ve got to feel better about the future for your kids than you would have felt 100 years ago, no matter what the situation is. Anyway, we’ll move to Becky.